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Re: Odd Escape
This question causes more heated debate than any other popular probability-based problem I know.
The answer is simple if you start out with the assumption that your first pick has one chance in three of being correct. From that, it should be obvious that your first pick has two chances in three of being incorrect, right? So if you switch, you have a 2/3 chance of switching away from a losing door.
After the other losing door is revealed and removed from your options, you end up having a 2/3 chance of switching to a winning door. It's good to switch doors. 1/3 of the time you'll pick the winning door to begin with and switch to a loser, but 2/3 of the time you'll start with a losing door and switch to the winner.
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