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Originally Posted by JoeXIII'007
5 percentage points?
5 percentage points? I really don't think that it will even be that close. How about a good 15%? I say this because 'W' has dug himself a huge hole that soon enough he won't be able to get his self out of it. Farenheight 911, the beheadings in Iraq and the continued chaos there (not to mention Afghanistan), an economy that surely is getting stronger but at the expense of so many middle class jobs, making so many poor. I can't help but feel that this will be an easy victory for Kerry.  |
While that may affect the election, you have to keep one thing in mind. Around 80 to 85 percent of the voting population has already decided who they'll vote for, and will not change their minds. Of those people, it's about evenly split between Democrat and Republican. Only 15 to 20 percent (someone correct me if they have the actual number) of voters are independent, and it's that small segment that Bush and Kerry both target in their campaigns. So, in order for Kerry (or Bush, for that matter) to win by over 15%, he would have to swing nearly every single independent voter. It's just not gonna happen. Thus, I stand by my prediction... the final vote will be within 5 percentage points. The country is just that divided, right now.
Also, you can say what you may about Bush, Iraq, Fahrenheit 9/11, or the economy, but nothing is ever as persuasive to others as it seems to someone who believes in it. I'd venture from your posting that you're part of the 85% or so who've already decided, and are a Democrat, at that. What may seem self-evident to you as a liberal will seem less so to an undecided voter, and flat-out wrong to a conservative. While I, too, agree with you in principle, one must bow to reality. Politics can be very polarizing, and it's easy to see what you believe as the only way to go.