I agree that it is probably unlikely that Kerry will be able to win Ohio.
However...
Earlier today I got the following information in a email sent by a family member. I am not sure on the source of the information, so I won't say whether I beleive it or not, or if I think that the predictions are valid. But I do find it interesting.
This is what the email said:
Quote:
It's not over in Ohio. As this email notes:
Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding, and 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000: That leaves 225,000 votes.
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000: That leaves Kerry with 191,250, giving Kerry a lead of 55,029.
If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave Kerry with a lead of 16,779.
If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves Kerry with a deficit of -2,346 that leaves the Kerry campaign in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.
Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
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I'm not suggesting that Kerry should have called for a recount, but I thought it was interesting that there might have been a possibility for this to happen.