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Originally Posted by NOAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
STORM NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA BY MON
EVENING. DYNAMICS AND LIFT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...
WITH MODEL QPFS OF OVER AN INCH REASONABLE. BUT COLD AIR MARGINAL
FOR ANY SNOW...AND THAT ONLY FOR FAR N AND NW COUNTIES...EVEN WITH
THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. ETA HAS BEEN TRENDING S AND E WITH LOW
TRACK...AND A LITTLE COLDER...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER TIMES...AND THINK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
GFS AND ETA NOW REASONABLE.
BASED ON MODEL THICKNESSES OF THE GFS...SEE POTENTIAL FOR
A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION...WHICH
MAY EFFECT OUR FAR NW COUNTIES...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING THERE. FROM DORCHESTER...SE ACROSS THE NRN NECK...AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY NW OF RICHMOND DOWN TO FARMVILLE...WITH A MIX WITH SLEET
AND RAIN EXPECTED...THINKING MORE LIKE ONE TO THREE INCHES. FOR
RICHMOND PROPER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...LOOKS LIKE A MIXED BAG WITH
A TRANSITION TO RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY AROUND IN INCH OF SLUSH.
THERE IS SOME DANGER SNOW MIGHT NOT MATERIALIZE EVEN WHERE FORECAST...
WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW THIS EVENING...AND THIS FLOW
ALREADY MODIFYING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SFC WET BULBS ALREADY
ABOVE FREEZING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME OF THIS
MODIFICATION WILL WORK ITS WAY FARTHER N TONIGHT AHD OF THE PRECIP.
PRECIP SHOULD END FROM S TO N MON AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM LIFTS N.
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1. Well be in school tomorrow
2. Theres no problem about messing up VCU- or atleast in Richmond- those coming from Blacksburg might have a little bit of trouble tho.