[Karthik]

I'm going to go with Steve on this one, and not just because he used to be my boss. Here are the factors which make me think the 3rd robot will be defense only. Just a caveat that Steve didn't address, the 10 points do not include any ramp points.

1. The serpentine draft.

By the time we come back to the picks of the top 3 seeds, we'll be looking at the 22nd through 24th picks in the draft. Will there be a competent shooter (see later point about herders) available at this point? Maybe, but not competent enough to be chosen over a defensive robot. At the Great Lakes Regional, an event known for it's depth, when it came back around to 1503's second pick, there were no shooters available who could rival a defensive stopper.

2. There are some dominant defensive robots this year

Teams such as 753, 4 and 67 have shown that certain teams can completely shut down shooters. For example, at Great Lakes, team 67 made the switch to pure defense. They were able to effectively neutralize offensive powerhouses such as 66 and 469. Would you trade the ability to even partially shutdown the lead shooter of an alliance, for a mere 10-15 points? I don't think this is the way to go.

3. Herding can be a dangerous thing to do, against good shooters.

If I'm playing 254 or 968, do I really want to give them more scoring opportunities. The trade of 1 point for 3 points just doesn't seem worth it, especially early in the match. Herders are very effective most of the time, but not against teams who human load, with large hoppers and have an accurate shooter.