
22-11-2006, 18:40
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1998
Location: -
Posts: 3,478
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Playoff Analysis: Pre-Week XII
Well my math will certainly be easier this week...
Code:
Rank Team W-L-T Pct. Pts. Streak F.Rank Change
1. Nor Cal Crushers 9-2-0 .818 769.00 W-3 2 ±0
2. stantheman 9-2-0 .818 654.00 W-1 8 ±0
3. Rhode Island Dynamic 7-3-1 .682 770.00 T-1 1 ±0
4. Evil Trav's Minions 7-4-0 .636 719.00 L-1 3 ±0
5. Koko's X-Cats 7-4-0 .636 686.00 W-4 5 +2
6. Silver Lobos 7-4-0 .636 663.00 W-2 7 +2
7. Eat My Shorts 7-4-0 .636 622.00 W-2 9 +2
8. Amazin' Blue 7-4-0 .636 575.00 L-3 12 -3
9. T-Hawks 6-4-1 .591 666.00 L-2 6 -3
10. Indiana Ironmen 6-5-0 .545 694.00 W-1 4 ±0
11. Meatball Artists 5-6-0 .455 534.00 L-2 18 ±0
12. The Very Fast Blitz 5-6-0 .455 514.00 W-3 19 +2
13. Cromer Smash! 4-6-1 .409 561.00 W-2 15 +3
14. {} 4-6-1 .409 553.00 T-1 16 -1
15. Boilers 1529 4-7-0 .364 565.00 L-1 13 -3
16.z FIRST Force 3-7-1 .318 589.00 L-5 10 -1
17.z Stevies Scapegoats 3-8-0 .273 563.00 L-2 14 ±0
18.z RPI10 3-8-0 .273 539.00 L-2 17 ±0
19.z Cooney Quest 2-8-1 .227 588.00 L-3 11 ±0
20.z sigmakittens 2-9-0 .182 504.00 W-1 20 ±0
z=Mathematically Eliminated
Playoff Picture: Look at how many of the top 10 won and how many of the bottom 10 lost. It made a rather noticible gap between the ones in good playoff standing and the ones who are going to need a lot of help now. Keep in mind that unless noted, I haven't figured in fantasy points yet. - Crushers and STM will clinch with a single win, or if both the T-Hawks and Ironmen lose a single game.
- Dynamic can clinch with two wins and a tie. They're really part of the three-wins crowd, but since they are one of the few teams who can actually afford a tie, I figured I'd mention it for completeness.
- Any of the Minions, X-Cats, Lobos, EMS, and Blue will clinch upon winning out (that's three wins). There's also a bunch of other situations that can happen, all of them too numerous to mention here.
- Here's an interesting one: the T-Hawks will clinch if they win out. This is due to the Lobos/Blue game in Week XIII, and if they win out, they'll have at least a half-game lead on the loser and thus be guaranteed at least eighth.
- The Ironmen will be eliminated if they lose out, or two losses and each of the 7-4 bracket win a single game.
- The Artists and Blitz must win twice to avoid direct elimination.
- A single loss will eliminate the Smash, {}, and Boilers. Also, a single win from each of the 7-4 bracket eliminates them.
- Finally, the number of teams eliminated from the playoff race grew significantly this week. Force, Scapegoats, RPI, Cooney, and Kittens are all out of it.
Now here's where things get interesting: - Week XIII has the match that will shake up the playoff standings: the Silver Lobos vs. Amazin' Blue. This game will knock one of those teams out of the 7-4 bracket, and is probably the best chance for any of the ninth through fifteenth place teams to make a late playoff run.
- The Week XIII matchup between the Minions and Crushers is not going to be as great as I thought it was last week due to McNabb getting hurt, and the Crushers facing injuries from Portis and Jones. It should still be pretty good though.
- The Dynamic continue their five-game basement tour with the Kittens this week, followed by the Artists and Boilers. Not only do they look good for the playoffs, but they also have a chance to spoil two teams' playoff dreams.
- The X-Cats have a similarly easy schedule, with {} this week, followed by the Kittens and Artists. Not only do they look good for the playoffs, but they also have a chance to spoil two teams' playoff dreams. Yay, cut and paste!
- EMS, after a rough first half, are all of a sudden looking golden. Their final three oponents (Ironmen, Scapegoats, & {}) are below them in the standings, but two of which can still make playoff runs. So winning those games only puts them farther ahead of the teams on the outside looking in.
- Amazin' Blue better watch out. They've lost three straight, and their next two opponents (Blitz and Lobos) are teams hungry for the playoffs. At least they have Force in Week XIV, but will it already be too late for them?
- The Artists admitedly have a tough road ahead, but with the mess going on above them, victories against the X-Cats and Dynamic will make their playoff chances greater.
- Same thing with {} and Boilers. They both have two opponents in the 7-4 bracket. It won't be easy as neither team can afford a single loss, but at least in winning out, they're directly helping themselves.
- Here's where Fantasy points may make a difference: The Ironmen will most likely clinch a playoff spot if they win out. This is because defeating EMS in Week XII will knock EMS down to their bracket and the Lobos/Blue game in Week XIII will knock the loser down to their bracket (making it a moot point whether or not the T-Hawks win out). The coup de grāce to this is the Ironmen's currently fourth place fantasy point standing, which will break any ties those two games cause.
- The battle for the #1 Seed Award got considerably narrower this week. While mathematically, anybody in the Top 10 can reach #1, realistically, it's down to STM and the Crushers (with an outside chance for the Dynamic). My pick is going to STM due to their easier schedule and because the Crushers are fighting injuries at the moment.
That should keep you all excited until I get the Thanksgiving pregame up. Which, BTW, will be posted within the next 18 hours. Until then, sayonara.
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