[mathking]

Anyone who thinks Ginn would have lasted to the second or third round is just not paying attention. The Dolphins being upset at not drafting Quinn will be tempered by Ginn's first big return or the first time he gets behind the defensive backs. Having coached against Ginn, I have seen just how amazingly fast he is. Even in the NFL there are not many players that fast. And it is not just raw speed, but the ability to see the openings and run through them ("running to daylight" in football terms). Hester's success for the Bears this year pretty much assured that Ginn would go in the first round (if there was any doubt before that). Many teams were not sure that Ginn would ever be a franchise player, but he was considered one of the safest picks in the draft in terms of being able to make an immediate impact.

I have done a couple of stat lessons on the NFL draft, using the work of other statisticians to guide my students. One of the interesting things to me is how mediocre scouting is in the NFL at being able to predict who will be good and who won't. This is not a dig at scouts per se, it is just hard to predict who is going to be a good player at the next level. One of the really interesting things to me is that players who shoot up or down far from where they were "expected" to be picked usually represent an overreaction if you compare their stats to other players at the same position. Particularly true of quarterbacks. The hypothesis of statisticians is that general managers will tend to place too much weight on one good or bad game or a 40 time at the combine (or a test score). Everyone remember how Vince Young's stock dropped last year? All the analysts saying there were serious concerns about his ability to play? Guess that rookie season proved the analysts right, or not.

PS-How could a Michigan fan have such negative feelings about Ginn? Could it be all the highlights?