Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Schuff
Is it really doable for under $30 million or is this just a token award similar to the $20 million Ansari X Prize that Paul Allen invested $30 million of his own money to win?
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Probably not. But that isn't the point of the prize.
Realistically, you can count on an adsolute minimum of $12-15 million being required for the launch vehicle, right off the bat. Then add in your development costs, assembly and test efforts, integration support, flight operations, and commincations costs. It can certainly be done in a fashion that is less expensive than many previous efforts. But that does not mean it will be cheap. By the time you are done, the actual costs required to build the winning system will probably significantly overwhelm the $20 million first prize (the remainder of the $30 million purse goes for the other prizes in the competition - it does not all go to the "winner").
The prize is not intended to completely cover the development investment required to win the competition. It is intended to be a big incentive that will help defray _some_ of the development costs, and encourage demonstrations that such an activity is technically feasible. The anticipation is the winning team would go on and develop further (commercial) applications of the demonstrated capability. These applications would generate the additional funds required to cover the remainder of the development costs and continued (profitable?) operations.
-dave