Sorry about the mistakes, I fixed most of them after they were pointed out. Especially with Suffield, I wasn't able to watch it personally, but I got tips from people that I must have mixed up in my head. Next week should be better.
Anyway, a little bit of friday night update. Due to the fact that Oregon, BAE, and St. Louis weren't webcast, I wasn't able to watch them, but based on what we've seen from Jersey and Chicago, the game is playing out much like expected.
Penalties, particularly crossing back across the line is costing many teams matches. It's probably the biggest individual factor so far.
Hybrid is proving to be where games can be won or lost, in a number of ways. An average hybrid mode gets you a mild advantage over none, but having an excellent (especially if you have two very good ones on alliance) means almost instant victory. More than half of the points from the 100 point match in NJ were scored in hybrid. There are also a number of penalties from some of the faster teams starting to be racked up, namely 1114 who's now carrying a yellow card for hybrid ramming. 48 has been the most notable hybrid defender, but it'll be interesting to see if they start to get called on impeding penalties, especially if a team like 1114 or 1024 hits them with more than 6 seconds left (thus signaling to pass).
Aside of a couple exceptions, most of the teams attempting to pick up with forks or prongs are struggling mightily. Acquisition is proving, as expected, to be the primary challenge for scoring with the track ball for most teams.
Removing the balls from the overpass has been spotty at best, but some teams are starting to become better at it.
Judging by the rankings, we got some Deja Vu(-ee) in St. Louis. Just like in 2007, 148 is the undefeated #1 seed right now, but 1444 is refusing to go away, and is currently the undefeated #2. Based on the rankings 217 and 45 are still major factors as well. Could we see a bit of repeat from last year or will the martians or BoB (both seem to be doing well) get in the finals mix?
More than anything, this game is shaping up to be very alliance based, making it next to impossible for any single team to rule the field without at lest minimal help from their partners. All three 100+ point matches have involved significant efforts (whether in lap, hybrid, or hurdling form) from all three partners. 1114 has been the strongest so far, but even they have two losses. Many lap runners are fairing very well (see 148), but of the matches I've seen it's typically because a vast majority of hurdlers are so close in ability that an exceptional lap runner makes a huge difference.
Based on the two events I've seen, here's my predictions for tomorrow.
NJ:
The Cybersonics are crushing the field in Jersey at the moment. 25 has done well, but is clearly mortal. There aren't many teams above 25 though, and given their history with 103, it still appears that they are the likely candidate for the top selection tomorrow. 103 is by far the favorite for gold, regardless of their top selection.
Midwest:
1114 may have two losses, but the Simbots are clearly the best. If they're not back in the #1 spot by noon tomorrow, they'll be picked first. Of the teams currently above them, I don't see them saying yes to their selection to anyone other than 1625 though. Winnovation is likely also on top on their pick list, despite their troubles this morning. 16, 71, 1024, and 33 are most likely towards the top of their list as well. Given the strength of the field, the Simbots will need a strong partner to win. 1114 has the best chance to win, but I don't see Midwest finishing without either 71 and/or 111 in the finals.