[waialua359]

Originally Posted by Donut

For me the ultimate alliance this year is 1114/x/y, since 1114 is the only team that really sticks out above all the elite players of this year (maybe 1114/217/1024? 1114/330/148? who knows).

But none of these alliances really have much of a hope of occurring, as I expect at least 2 (more likely all 3) to be in the top 8 in their division or to be easy first round picks.

I think the actual winning alliance at the Championships is going to be a 5th-8th division seeded alliance, captained by either a team performing well enough to get noticed but not spectacular enough to be considered one of the dominate top teams (25, 39, 111, 254, 1625) or by one of the highly publicized robots of this year having an off match or two in qualifiers (27, 217, 233, 330, 968, 987, 1024, 1114, 1126, 1717, etc.). There are so many good hurdlers out there that in at least one division a low captain will be able to pick another robot of almost equal hurdling ability (say 5-6 hurdles per match), but will have first or second choice at the good lap runners or herders (of which there are very few and will almost be guaranteed to be passed up in the first round for hurdlers). I'm a firm believer in alliance play and that 3 well above average robots will be able to defeat 1 or even 2 phenomenal robots with no supporting alliance, and that having a partner that doesn't need a trackball will be essential.

So I'm hoping to see something like 118/39/1986, 1625/100/207, 118/33/60, and who knows what else. The last bot is really up in the air to me as lap runners/herders don't seem to be getting that much publicity aside from 148 (and unfortunately I think they're going to do well enough to get in the top 8 in their division, and I don't think there'll be 2 good enough hurdlers for them to pick up out there).

Your rationale makes sense. However, I would be more inclined to agree with it in last year's game. Teams picking late could get a good ringer bot first round and take the "best" ramp (bonus robot) on the way back. Since bonus points were huge last year, it decided many matches.
I think at CMP, there will be more than 24 good hurdlers, lap/racer bots to go around per division. I'm not entirely convinced that a #1 seed with a first pick will be at a disadvantage once the 3rd alliance partner choices comes around. I still think 3 hurdling robots are the way to go that have decent speed and great autonomous.
1024 has proven that they can take on an average team (or an alliance with no auto) by themselves during auto period.