Quote:
Originally Posted by IndySam
I understand that, what I am saying is that their calculation of my teams expected contribution is no where near my teams actual contribution including subtracting the penalties.
Also I see several teams who's expected contribution is way to high from my experience of their performance this year.
If you guys want this tool to be useful you need to figure out why.
It's just my theory that it can't property calculate the impact of penalties, if you think this theory is wrong then you need to figure out what is causing the figure to be so different than the actual results.
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Mathematically, this method is 100% sound. Whether you see any value in the mathematical model is for you to determine. I'd like to know your mathematical reasoning for why this method doesn't take penalties into account. If all you're relying on is selected cases of anecdotal evidence, your theory holds very little weight with me.
By no means am I suggesting that this model is perfect. From the numbers that Team 1114 has run, there are some definite anomalies. That being said, for the most part this model seems to agree with the specific match data we've collected at three events we attended.
Like with most statistics, the value is all in how you interpret them. If you don't think they're accurate, ignore them.