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Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque
Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today
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Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.
In other news:
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Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.
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This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24
So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.