[John Wanninger]

Originally Posted by AndyB

My data was determined using actual scouting. Scouting was done by 2194 and 171. I have the data for every team if you want me to compile it all. This is only for Friday at Milwaukee for comparison.

Kind of interesting to see the differences.

One reason for Offensive Power Rankings not matching reality is due to the fact that OPR’s are based on the averages of partners’ OPRs rather than actual contributions. Any deviation of a team from its ‘average’ contribution in a given match will always erroneously drive their partners’ OPR up or down.

These deviations can be large; it would not be unusual for a team to contribute 20 points in one match and then perhaps due to penalties, “contribute” -20 in the next. Given enough matches one might expect these errors to cancel each other out. However, when there is a limited number of matches (think: 8 coin tosses don’t always produce 4 heads and 4 tails) and the high degree of volatility, the error can be significant.

So while the OPR may be a good predictor, there's still no substitute for accurate, detailed scouting!