[Bongle]

I think the problem with predicting is that there are so many teams with decent chances of winning. If you could somehow query out the probabilities of victory from the universe, it might look like:

1114: 15%
217: 8%
16: 6%
... bunch more well-known teams ...
... 300 teams with < 1%

So even the team with the highest probability of winning it has a 85% chance of NOT winning it, which is why they are the best choice, but still probably won't.