[David Brinza]

Originally Posted by EricH

With 44 regionals next year and ~ 20 teams with a slot already, here's the math:
6 teams/regional*44 regionals +20=284 teams currently qualify through past performance/regional performance. (Next year)

So how long would it take to max out? Add 1 team per year (HoF addition) and run some numbers. I'm going to assume steady growth of 3 regionals per year. For the 2010-2012 seasons:
303
322
341
and the next year, we're over the current team limit. Or, how many more regionals will it take? At 3 a year, it takes 3 years, so 9-10 more regionals (after the 2009 season).

Not all teams will come. But, there still won't be a whole lot of room for non-qualifying teams.

So for the next 3-4 Championship Events, the current system would work. But after that, either a different qualification method (e.g. super-regionals that you get to through regionals) or more (or bigger) divisions would be necessary.

Six teams per regional is a worse-case scenario. In reality, there are teams that will win more than one regional, or hall-of-fame teams, past champions, CA and EI that will also win one or more regional. That could prolong the inevitable change in the Championship qualification criteria or format.

On the other hand, if FIRST's growth rate increases (400 new teams next year?), the change may occur even sooner. Another thread discusses possible new venues: could a requirement on the facility be the ability to accommodate ~700 teams, eight division fields + Einstein??