[EricH]

Originally Posted by GaryVoshol

It's been a long time since I took statistics. But I think you're logic is flawed.

First, you assume that each team has an equal chance of winning the game. We'll overlook that for the time being.

But each regional is a unique event. If winning is truly random, the chances of winning one are independent of winning another. Therefore

1 regional - 3/50
2 regionals - 3/50 + 3/50
3 regionals - 3/50 + 3/50 + 3/50
etc.

We assume each team has an equal chance of winning one of the 4 non-submission, non-rookie awards. That is not the case, but we want a best-case scenario here.

I think your logic may also be flawed. You're saying that in two events, a team has a 6/50 chance. They have a 3/50 in each (using the numbers we're playing with). However, as I remember probability, you don't add. The odds of x event in two separate cases is multiplied. Your chances of qualifying twice are much smaller than indicated.

Assuming, of course, that everything is equal, which it isn't.