[archiver]

Posted by Joe Johnson at 12/24/2000 2:36 PM EST


Engineer on team #47, Chief Delphi, from Pontiac Central High School and Delphi Automotive Systems.


In Reply to: Re: 40+% Growth Rate - How Long?
Posted by nick237 on 12/23/2000 10:44 PM EST:



Both Raul and Nick make two important points.

#1 we can't keep the current format forever

#2 with the right kind of changes, almost any number
can be handles.

My view is that we are in a very dangerous race.

I don't think many folks realize just how much FIRST is
balanced on a knife edge. They have been running down
that sharp blade for at least the 5 years I have been
involved and in my view they can only keep it up one or
2 more years.

The basic problem is this: How can they manage %40
annual compound growth without imploding?

FIRST has done a great job managing the problem so far
but I really believe that the jig will be up in 2003.

That is the year that either FIRST will have landed the
big time advertiser bucks or the days of %40 growth are
over (maybe the days of ANY growth will be over by then
without some major changes or new funding sources).

Another major wild card in this whole dangerous game
they are playing is the economy, stupid. A tanked
economy may even mean that 2002 will have fewer teams
than 2001, depending on the general perception of the
depth of the crisis.

So... I have believed for a long time that FIRST is in
a very serious race, the race to get big enough to get
enough eyeballs to get access to the pot of goals that
is advertising in America. They have to get big
enough, fast enough, before they implode from insane
growth or to explode from the effects of a downturn in
the economy.

It is a serious game. One that Dean and Co. are well
aware of. The stakes are very high.

You know which side I am cheering for.

Joe J.