To me the regional strength is based on one thing, the "JVN Fear Factor" scale. Here is how it works in my head, and why I believe I'm not out of my mind in thinking it is pretty accurate...
I can classify every team in FIRST one of two ways.
- I'm scared of them (having not seen their robot).
- I'm not.
Everyone makes these distinctions. There are some teams who you just find yourself in awe of. Some teams who at kickoff you find yourself wondering "I wonder what they're building?" The teams to idolize... and fear.
I can make these classifications, right now. Before the season has even started. Some teams have a history of being a solid contender. Some teams have started a shorter trend as a contender which could make me worry. Some teams are just "due".
People would argue that this is a totally biased, and quantitative way of doing things. They're absolutely right. But I've been in FIRST for a while. I've played against teams from all over the world. I've got a decent idea of what is out there...
Once I "classify" my teams, I look to see how many of the teams from category 1 are at a regional. If the regional has a lot of these teams, it is a hard regional. If the regional doesn't, it's not.
Guess which regionals rank highest on the "JVN Fear Factor" scale? Typically the ones from the Midwest give me the most "tingles". Lots of scary powerhouses there who could come away with a win.
Other Thoughts:
1. I love the ridiculousness of the East Coast vs. West Coast arguments. Yes, there are powerhouses from both of these regions. Yes, if you throw these powerhouses into a room, sometimes east comes out on top, and sometimes west comes out on top. There are a lot of factors which go into these outcomes. (For instance, lots of Midwest teams don't come to IRI at 100%, but I know that when a team like 233 or 330 makes the trip, they are going to do everything they can to be at full strength. Teams that travel to IRI typically hit a little harder than
some of the locals... this is just my impression having attended for a few years. It is natural that if you're stuck in a car for 14 hours you'll be a LITTLE more committed then the team that drives 20 minutes.) Comparing these individual powerhouses together isn't going to tell you which region is stronger. Comparing how many "scary" teams are in each region will give you a better indicator of overall strength (imho).
2. I also know that on "Any Given Saturday" anything can happen. Yes, sometimes the Simbots get knocked off by a team noone has heard of, but that doesn't happen often. This can happen anywhere, it doesn't change the overall difficulty of the regional.
3. People will say "but you're not familiar with teams from <insert area here> so you can't make a general statement like this!" Look, I'm kind of a robot and strategy nut. I've been described as a "student of the game" before. I pay very close attention to the "big picture" especially at Atlanta. I've been watching Einstein intently for almost 10 years now. I don't care that your team is "feared" in Pittsburgh. If you're not scary at the (inter)national level, then you're not scary at that level, and you're not going to convince me your regional is any more difficult than it is. This system works best if you try to compare everyone at some standard. In my head, there is some unquantifiable national standard to which I measure the teams. Again, this is just the way I do things... The fact that 25 continues to kick butt in Jersey is not why I would list them as a powerhouse. Their performance on the "big scale" is what makes them scary.
Yes, there might be some REALLY great teams out there I have never heard of who never attend Championships, or who have somehow slipped under my radar. That is my loss. But really, how many of those teams do you think there are?
4. Teams vary from week to week. Some teams come out of the box very strong at early events (a great example is 121... I guess 3 weeks of practice will do that for you?). Some teams start a little rough around the edges and build over time and don't really hit full strength until Atlanta (I was going to list a few teams here, but didn't want to risk offending anyone -- you know who you are... heh). However, once those teams get rolling, they are at the top of the heap. Does this come into play in my head? Absolutely.
5. The game evolves over time. Things become more competitive as teams hit their stride. Some teams are "Week 1 Good". This is a team that comes out of the box strong, but never really improves. They've got enough firepower to win an early week regional before everyone else hits their stride and before the game fully evolves, but not enough firepower to be a true powerhouse at a later regional or at the Championship.
6. "John, your system isn't fair to younger rookie teams! They're tough competitors too!" Yes, this is absolutely correct. Some teams make a name for themselves quicker than others. Other teams will need to wait a few years before they're well known. Everyone is familiar with 1902 right? Everyone is familiar with 2056 right? In general, younger teams are less experienced and as a result "less scary" than veterans. Combine this with the fact that they're not as well known... yep, there won't be a lot of high numbers on this list. Is that necessarily wrong when you're ranking regional difficulty? Isn't it the nature of the system that more of the powerhouses are veterans? (But not necessarily vice-versa.)
7. See quote below...
Quote:
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We work really hard to "ambivalence-scale" our competition, as we call it. We create a competition where there's a lot of luck added to it. The rounds are only 2 minutes long; the scoring system isn't particularly fair. It favors, throughout each round, the underdog. We do that because we wanted to be like real sports, which are made to have a lot of luck in them. -- Dean Kamen http://www.popularmechanics.com/blog...html?nav=rss20
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Ohh well... *shrug*
Just some thoughts of how this question plays out "in my head". I thought maybe someone would be interested.
Though, I wholeheartedly agree with Cory. 1114 sets a new standard for everyone.
$.02
-John