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Re: Correlation Vs. Causation...
Posted by ChrisH at 03/09/2001 3:43 PM EST
Engineer on team #330, Beach 'Bots, from Hope Chapel Academy and NASA JPL, J & F Machine, Raytheon, et al.
In Reply to: Correlation Vs. Causation...
Posted by Joe Johnson on 03/09/2001 11:27 AM EST:
First of all I want to state that I'm enjoying this discussion and learning a few things. I must admit that I've been focused on other areas so I am not current on data relating to the on-going Global Warming debate. I like even more that we can disagree in a graciously professional manner in front of all these students, even if they aren't paying attention. Maybe something will rub off on them.
From Patrick's initial post I got the impression that he was repeating the "party line". I see now that you have thought alot about the question and done reseach on your own. I commend you for this. By the way I knew combustable engine was a typo, I just thought I'd attempt some engineer humor. Maybe Steve Alaniz and Sally can do something with it.
Dodd's points are also well taken.
But Dr Joe has gotten to the heart of the problem. Correlation is merely a possible indicator to causation. I had no idea that there were data available that correlated so well. But that doesn't necessarily mean that because you get slugged every time a certain person walks into the crowded room you are in, that that person is the person doing the sluging. The trick is to get everyone else out of the room first and then see what happens. If in that case you do get slugged you have a good indication. If not, it may only mean that they are smart enough not to slug you when there are no other suspects. Or you may have the wrong suspect altogether.
In any case I would not be exactly sad to see the IC engine disappear. I rather fancy photovoltaics myself if the $/Watt ratio could be brought down.
Also neither Dodd nor Patrick presented an alternative to combustion for creating the thermal gradient for operating the sterling engine. I can think of a couple but they are not currently feasible.
Maybe this summer I'll have to get back to work on my solar air-conditioner. Bet I could sell a million of them out here in CA, especially if the Grid goes down.
Chris Husmann, PE
Team 330 the Beach'Bots
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