With the much anticipated debut of Looking Forward's
Predictions for Week 1 (Amazing as always
), and great pics/vids from some of the elite teams, dominant robots are the talk of the forums. But will these elite teams actually be able to control the Lunacy?
The best metric I can think of for determining the dominance of individual teams is the success of top seed alliances. If a team is truly dominant they should be able to seed #1 and win the regional. Even if they don't seed #1 often they are picked by #1 (although they sometimes decline). Last year was a great year for top seeds,
winning 54% of the regionals.
I really don't think this is a good game for dominant robots for reasons I will detail later in this post. In fact I will go so far as to predict that top seeds will win less than 40% of the regionals (very low, but might as well make a bold prediction
)
Now I've told you my prediction, so vote in the poll to make your own prediction (not a private poll so put your good name behind your prediction) and share your thoughts in posts. Note: Poll should expire Friday of Week 2 so gets your votes in early
Reasons I think this is not a game for dominate teams:
-Robot auto scoring will be down
As
Car Nack predicted, I expect very little robot auto scoring this year and there is very little incentive for it. A good auto this year is one where the opposing Payload Specialists don't score on you too much (the rest is just minor bonuses). Unlike last year where teams like Simbot could score more in automode than many alliances could score in the entire match (if they even scored any points after all the G22 penalties were deducted
)
-Many similar robot capabilities
The rules are very restrictive (bumper perimeter, wheels) so it is difficult to engineer anything special to give your bot an edge. Also, each team starts with only 20 Moon Rocks, and in order to get more you need to get them from allies or the floor. I think it will be difficult for the elite few to push themselves very far above the level of a simple effective dumper bot.
-The serpent has some venom
The serpentine alliance selection (I'm a big supporter, not criticizing) could make a major impact as your alliance may only be as good as its weakest link. Even with good scouting, the last overall pick may be a liability. A low seed, well rounded, cooperative alliance could be the best alliance. Good strategy and changes in strategy can win games (anecdote: a change in strategy won a qual match at championship last year that I had previously labeled a sure loss against an all regional winner alliance) Along with this point, random pairings in qualifying matches (despite an algorithm I expect to be the best we have seen) have a chance to make the path to #1 nearly impossible with lopsided matchups.
-Wild cards: Super Cells and Payload Specialists
Much ramps in 2007, Super Cells are major game changing element in the last 20 sec of a match. Unlike the ramps, Super Cells are less about your robot (a kitbot can retrieve Empty Cells) and more about your Payload Specialist. I think some robots will score them at higher accuracy than humans but nothing will be 100%, increasing to the luck element of the game. Plus, G14 taketh the Super Cells from the rich and giveth the poor an advantage (unlike serpentine draft, I dislike this rule)
Am I saying that 1114, 1024, 217, 111, 71 and 16 will be shutout of the Midwest finals, 25 nor 103 will win Jersey, and 254 will not win SVR (not week 1, but relevant)? NO!
Better robots are still more likely to win (wouldn't be much of a robot competition otherwise). Additionally these elite teams are the complete package with great strategy, scouting and comp teams.
What I am saying is that no robot is unbeatable in this game and I expect plenty of upsets. Going undefeated for any stretch of time will be exceedingly difficult (unlike '08 and '06). There will be more upsets of the top seed alliance.