[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by JesseK

You would want to have (blueScore = blueOPR + redDPR) and vice versa. Remember, you having a low DPR is better for you, hence you want your opponents to have a high DPR. If you subtract the opponent's DPR then you're lowering your own score just because the opponents are easier to score on ... which doesn't make sense when the opponent's DPR is positive (which is pretty bad).

Some simulation data to come tonight; I have an idea for a quick and dirty Match Prediction method.

<edit> Quick match prediction using the formula above for the DC Quarterfinals:

blueScore = blueOPR - redDPR:
Teams: (RED) 234, 45, & 620 vs. (BLUE) 1111, 122, 768
Predicted Scores: Red = 43, Blue = 6
Actual Scores: Red = 126, Blue = 100


blueScore = blueOPR + redDPR:
Teams: (RED) 234, 45, & 620 vs. (BLUE) 1111, 122, 768
Predicted Scores: RED=101 BLUE=80
Actual Scores: Red = 126, Blue = 100

Note that the prediction for their second match was identical even when the new match data was added, so predicting the outcome of the second QF match when the scores are that close is nearly impossible. Predictions also don't take into account adjustments for strategy, which is probably why it's best to leave the actual statistics for Qualification Matches only.

Hi Jesse,

I think the general consensus in the CD community agrees that OPR should be calculated with qualifying matches only. The extra matches by some teams who made it to elimination round will bias the results if they are used.

Ed