Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongle
Steve's idea appears to be the same as mine, or at least his two equations are. I tried to implement it on tuesday, but it had bugs and I haven't had to time to get back to it. It is unfortunate that the matrix comes out as somewhat ill-conditioned, but I guess that isn't that terribly surprising since the amount of data we're processing is fairly small.
I'll try again to implement this new matrix tonight, and I'll plug it into my prediction code to see if it is any better than the more basic OPR/DPR stats.
We need to come up with a name for this more-complex stat: how about OPR+ and DPR+?
|
One other thing, then I'll go back to my day job ... When I was talking to Kenneth Massey (the BCS guy) he also suggested something, that would modify these equations just a bit - but would require team by team scouting. The red or blue score would NOT be the final score as published, but would first, obviously, not include penalties - so we are really measuring "capabilities" not just performance; and secondly, if you were to have added MR to your own alliance - so as to avoid <G22>, the points that you scored on a alliance partner would be removed from the opposing alliance's score. How much of an effect would this cause in the long run, I don't think much - but if we are basing the OPR+ and DPR+ on a limited number of matches, then it could very likely be significant.
Steve