Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveGPage
We were able to finally get OPR+ and DPR+ values calculated from the equation that Bongle and I had both posted. Attached is the perl script that my son and I were able to get together this weekend.
Usage: cmd line: perl scouteval.pl {qualmatch}.txt ---- which will create a file called results.txt, and where {qualmatch} is the file created from the usfirst match results page, copied into a text file. Then use whatever software you use to solve the matrix for the team OPR+ and DPR+ values.
Spoiler for length:
The OPR+ and DPR+ values (sorted by OPR+), as calculated for the DC regional, is as follows:
Code:
Team Number OPR+ DPR+
118 78 38
2199 72 6
116 68 44
1731 66 32
1712 66 26
176 64 8
2068 62 32
1629 60 28
836 60 18
2961 58 26
2964 56 50
181 56 34
597 54 40
122 54 22
1418 54 10
45 52 54
1872 52 30
449 52 20
401 50 36
365 48 0
3046 46 34
1446 46 12
1915 44 36
272 42 34
339 42 26
587 42 26
611 42 12
2913 40 28
709 40 26
2914 40 16
53 40 16
1900 36 32
1748 36 8
620 34 16
1123 32 26
357 32 24
2819 30 40
1522 30 12
234 30 6
2911 30 0
346 28 8
538 26 18
2377 26 10
615 24 22
1719 22 46
768 22 26
1793 22 22
2962 20 12
7 20 12
2421 20 -4
1849 18 6
623 18 -10
614 18 -14
1111 16 6
2963 14 2
1727 12 28
2912 12 4
2900 10 2
1370 10 0
2121 8 -2
1885 8 -6
1279 6 26
2729 6 -4
2537 2 34
1699 -16 16
A couple of things I noticed, if you run the OPR+/DPR+ numbers with incomplete data, the numbers will look wrong, but relative sorting will be pretty close - but expect numbers like +800 to - 800. When all of the matches finish, the numbers should settle out to values like above. Also, we noticed that we could predict the outcome of the elimination matches about 65-70% of the time.
We are working to automate the process.
Let me know what you think!
Steve
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I love sabremetrics, OPR/DPR, +/-, and stats in general. I was excited for these OPR+ and DPR+ numbers. But unfortunately, just from looking at them, I can tell we might have taken it a step too far and they might have become less accurate.
The fact that my former team, 116 is ranked 3rd at the event should be the first indicator (as well as the ranks of 45, 365, and 234 being so low), despite struggling to score the entire regional. I don't have the raw OPR numbers handy (on my Mac), so I can't give detailed comparisons between the rankings, but judging by these, I think it may have become less accurate to what the team's real performance was.