Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery
I love sabremetrics, OPR/DPR, +/-, and stats in general. I was excited for these OPR+ and DPR+ numbers. But unfortunately, just from looking at them, I can tell we might have taken it a step too far and they might have become less accurate.
The fact that my former team, 116 is ranked 3rd at the event should be the first indicator (as well as the ranks of 45, 365, and 234 being so low), despite struggling to score the entire regional. I don't have the raw OPR numbers handy (on my Mac), so I can't give detailed comparisons between the rankings, but judging by these, I think it may have become less accurate to what the team's real performance was.
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I have similar concerns. Last night I ran every regional that we had numbers for. I had hoped to create a combined "top 25" list from every regional, until I saw which teams rose to the top, and which teams did not. I did a double check on TBA to see how these teams had actually performed, and was surprised that teams in some regionals - such as WI, NYC, and Oregon - were showing up on the top despite the fact that many had only moderate records, and did not appear to be high scorers. Some regionals, the numbers corresponded with what I expected, but other regionals, the numbers did not. The one factor that I'm still not sure about, and perhaps you can help me with this Sean - the team scores are not only the robot - so the purpose of this equation was designed to look at not only how effective the robot is, but also how well the HP does, too.
During DC, I had my scouts do extensive scouting on each match, looking at how many MRs each scored, and how many MRs were scored on them (developing a match by match +/-). What I failed to do, was to have them track the HP and how many SCs the team delivered to the HP, both of which had profound impact on the game. If I just looked at the performance of each robot, 45, 365, and 234 were on the top of my list. But I knew from observations that 2199's HP was deadly, and 118 had the ability to get at least 2 SCs exchanged. So I wonder if there isn't some aspect of the OPR+ calculation relying on those other factors, and not just how effective the robot is.
I'm going to run these numbers (looking at all three factors - robot, HP and SCs) while we are in the midst of the competition at Chesapeake this weekend to see if I see any trends. Perhaps this equation isn't going to give us the info we are looking for, but I still want to run some additional numbers to see how they do.
Best regards,
Steve