Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexD744
It was perfect because we were #1 after Friday. And therefore it must have been the best tool ever. Just Kidding, however, it really did help in our meeting. It confirmed that KRUNCH was as amazing as we thought.
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The numbers you are referring to, are the OPR/DPR numbers. The numbers that we are talking about are the OPR+/DPR+ numbers - which, yes, I know don't look a lot different!
I pulled the data from FL, and ran the calculation for the finals, using the OPR+ and DPR+ numbers. Here are the results ...
First, averaging the score across all three finals matches, the avg Red score was 74 and the avg Blue score was 84.
I plugged the calculated values into the OPR+ and DPR+ formulas, and here is the outcome Red 68, Blue 90. An 8% difference for Red and a 7% difference for Blue between the predicted values and actual values. Penalties, which are not considered in the calculations, could easily account for that kind of discrepancy.
In doing so, one thing became obvious, the OPR+ number can not be taken into consideration by itself, but must be linked with the DPR+ number - but not simply by adding them together - but in the separate calculations of Red vs Blue Score. I'm going to do some additional modelling of the data to see how we can get a combined ranking value.
I am going to run additional calculations at other regionals and see how they correspond.
Steve