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Posted by Joe Johnson at 03/29/2001 5:15 PM EST


Engineer on team #47, Chief Delphi, from Pontiac Central High School and Delphi Automotive Systems.


In Reply to: less doubt?
Posted by Jessica Boucher on 03/29/2001 3:17 PM EST:



By saying that the Nationals are in less doubt than ever, I don't mean to imply that there is no doubt about who will win but rather that there is less doubt about the outcome than ever before.

Clearly there are 2 teams that are have to considered front runners:

Team 71
Team 254

These teams have shown that they can seed high (at 2 regionals) AND score above 600 in the elimination rounds.

There are a few teams that may be tossed in to the mix as potential favorites (e.g. Team #365 based on Philly), but for the most part Cheesey Poofs and Beatty/Hammond have to be considered the top contenders going into the Nationals.

I don't say this to degrade anyone else's robot or chances rather I am just calling them the way I see them at this point. I believe from what I have heard that this is a very common belief among the FIRST faithful.

So... ...this is what I mean by the outcome be less in doubt this year than any other year. I cannot recall a year when such a small set of teams were so highly favored to win by so many people.

Will it turn out as the wise guys predict? I don't know.

One thing I like to tell my students is that 7 is the MOST LIKELY outcome when rolling 2 dice (6 times out of 36 rolls), but 7 is not a LIKELY outcome (5 times out of 6 the dice do not come up 7).

Who is the most likely team to win the Nationals? I think it is clearly either Team 71 or Team 254.

Is it likely one of those two teams will be National Champs? Time will tell.

Joe J.