Similar to what I did
last year, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's
average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.
Code:
Team Avg Seed Median Mode StDev Min Max #1 seed Top 8
67 6.0 4 1 5.7 1 28 42 153
71 7.5 4 1 8.3 1 50 46 138
1195 13.6 11 5 10.9 1 63 11 83
971 14.0 11 2 12.2 1 63 8 82
40 14.8 12 4 11.6 1 52 8 75
716 15.7 13 13 12.4 1 68 10 64
1717 15.9 12.5 9 12.9 1 74 6 70
111 17.6 13 3 14.2 1 61 8 67
207 17.7 14.5 4 14.4 1 80 8 61
987 18.9 15 10 13.7 1 63 7 55
45 19.6 16 11 15.4 1 70 5 57
25 20.4 17 13 14.0 1 66 2 43
1923 21.4 19 4 15.0 1 63 6 52
179 21.8 19 18 15.1 1 78 2 42
704 21.9 19 15 14.6 1 75 3 36
870 22.9 18.5 8 16.1 1 77 3 39
744 23.2 19 16 15.8 1 76 4 41
151 25.7 23 32 16.2 1 85 1 28
1318 25.8 21.5 14 16.5 1 81 2 22
2741 25.8 22 17 16.5 1 73 4 28
1332 27.0 25 10 16.7 1 76 4 30
2348 27.6 27.5 16 16.5 2 76 0 27
1742 28.7 26.5 31 18.3 1 79 1 30
56 29.3 28 14 18.1 1 79 1 24
115 29.7 28 12 16.0 2 68 0 17
2775 31.1 29.5 29 16.1 2 76 0 15
20 31.5 30 44 18.4 1 84 2 23
1208 32.0 29.5 22 18.3 2 84 0 16
1250 32.7 31 26 19.7 1 80 1 22
1477 33.1 31 36 19.1 3 86 0 19
973 35.4 32 14 19.8 2 85 0 13
47 38.6 37 46 18.1 5 82 0 5
708 38.7 36 34 20.1 1 81 1 12
2844 39.1 38.5 39 18.4 3 80 0 9
1745 39.3 37 36 18.4 4 85 0 9
418 39.9 40 27 18.8 1 81 1 6
359 41.0 40.5 45 18.6 2 82 0 6
1941 41.9 40 24 19.8 4 85 0 6
435 42.2 41.5 52 18.9 2 82 0 9
2729 42.4 42.5 34 19.3 3 87 0 2
226 42.5 44 48 18.3 6 85 0 4
555 43.4 44 65 20.2 1 86 1 8
1261 46.1 46 68 19.9 7 85 0 1
2936 46.3 47.5 53 19.1 2 87 0 5
1902 46.6 46 34 19.7 3 87 0 4
2230 47.4 49.5 50 18.4 8 86 0 1
281 48.6 51 69 19.6 4 87 0 3
494 49.1 51.5 70 20.0 1 84 1 5
279 49.4 51 50 19.1 6 87 0 3
1872 49.5 52 57 19.0 6 87 0 3
2214 50.2 51 53 18.2 1 86 1 1
967 50.3 50.5 68 19.5 2 87 0 2
1124 51.2 52 57 17.7 3 86 0 4
1676 51.3 52.5 58 18.8 2 86 0 3
11 51.6 53.5 53 19.0 5 87 0 1
1540 53.0 54 43 17.9 4 87 0 3
65 53.0 55 54 18.3 6 86 0 3
168 53.8 55.5 52 19.6 6 87 0 1
3059 54.2 55 37 18.3 5 87 0 1
815 54.8 55 52 18.1 7 85 0 1
2638 55.9 56 54 19.3 6 87 0 1
303 56.0 57 57 18.0 8 86 0 2
1829 56.4 58 62 18.3 11 87 0 0
1551 56.6 59 69 17.4 8 87 0 1
932 57.5 59 72 18.3 11 87 0 0
1270 57.7 59 78 17.9 9 86 0 0
230 57.7 63 67 19.2 9 87 0 0
1662 59.1 62 73 18.3 7 87 0 1
461 60.0 64 78 19.1 8 87 0 1
2642 61.4 62 81 17.1 6 87 0 1
999 61.8 65 79 16.7 9 87 0 0
1646 62.3 66 66 17.3 11 87 0 0
1598 63.2 66.5 83 16.4 19 87 0 0
440 64.2 69 81 16.7 15 87 0 0
2910 65.0 71 82 16.7 19 86 0 0
1710 67.7 72 86 15.7 9 87 0 0
1601 69.5 73.5 81 14.8 12 87 0 0
1450 70.2 74 85 14.4 18 87 0 0
753 70.2 74 83 14.1 11 87 0 0
2579 70.6 75 81 14.8 12 87 0 0
2234 70.9 75 86 14.5 20 87 0 0
1772 71.9 75.5 85 13.8 11 87 0 0
1836 72.1 75 83 13.6 22 87 0 0
1058 72.5 76 84 13.6 10 87 0 0
1885 76.4 79 87 10.8 23 87 0 0
2550 77.8 82 87 10.4 40 87 0 0
203 80.2 84 87 8.2 44 87 0 0