[Dan 1038]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 193 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
1625	6.3	4	1	7.5	1	48	40	155
121	7.4	5	1	7.7	1	47	46	131
1726	10.4	7	1	9.8	1	47	20	106
1507	12.6	9	3	12.6	1	69	11	96
2970	14.4	11	4	12.7	1	67	10	85
1701	17.6	14	3	13.6	1	78	7	56
234	18.5	14	5	15.3	1	65	7	60
16	21.8	17	7	16.2	1	76	4	47
1155	21.5	19	5	14.9	1	66	3	42
2377	22.4	19	5	15.8	1	76	2	44
102	21.2	17	7	16.1	1	67	3	49
191	21.9	19	2	14.8	1	64	2	43
364	22.6	19	31	15.5	1	67	2	40
1038	22.9	18	7	16.8	1	79	2	41

First, I must say I am impressed at your analysis - neat way to look at the available data and extrapolate a result. Unfortunately, as the stats suggest, the analysis really doesn't mean anything. The standard deviations are too large to lead any credance to the results, as would be expected in an analysis with this many variables. Keep at it, if you can refine this it will be a very cool way to predict team's success!