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Re: Newton 09
All these predictions and rating systems are great, but the only score that matters is the one that shows up on the board after the match. All are good in that they make us think about what factors matter in this game, and they give us something to do while we wait for the real thing!
All of them seem to be in general agreement, with the same teams showing up in approximately the same place on each. I would caution against trying to get too precise with any of this. In fact, I think you are kidding youself if you have more than one or two significant digits in the rating.
We plan to use advance scouting for two things:
1) Qual match planning - who are the scoring threats, who is likely to come after us, and who should we send after their top threat?
2) Draft scouting priority - since we really can't do a good job of scouting every team. We plan to focus on about the top half.
Not to be left out of the fun, we came up with our own system. It is based mostly on the FIRST in MI system (win/loss record, draft selection, and elimination performance, all normalized to account for the different numbers of events) with a scaling factor based on the Simbots "+/- contribution" thrown in for good measure. Did we put the proper empahsis on the correct statistics? Who knows. It must be right because it puts us in the top 10 (just kidding). It agrees with a lot of the other ratings, but there are some good teams that didn't make the cut, so I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Here is what we came up with for the teams above the median:
Team # Rating
1625 49
2970 43
1155 42
121 42
1038 41
1726 41
1657 39
368 39
1507 38
85 35
1918 34
852 33
234 33
612 32
1086 32
3075 31
16 31
2344 31
832 29
148 28
469 28
1868 28
1569 27
292 27
768 27
365 27
1706 26
126 26
2866 25
2377 25
135 25
2004 25
102 24
2996 24
2609 23
2659 23
1714 22
1629 22
360 22
88 22
1511 21
233 21
364 20
1732 20
1701 20
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