Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross
Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.
Code:
Team Avg Seed Median Mode StDev Min Max #1 seed Top 8
2056 5.3 3 1 6.5 1 46 56 163
2753 9.6 7 1 9.3 1 59 22 122
1218 9.9 6.5 1 9.7 1 78 25 117
1114 9.7 7 1 9.4 1 64 24 118
624 13.0 9 6 11.5 1 65 12 92
231 16.0 12 4 13.4 1 62 6 75
155 16.8 13.5 7 13.5 1 63 6 75
2587 18.8 15 15 14.1 1 66 6 43
343 16.9 14 9 13.1 1 78 6 63
118 19.2 15.5 11 14.9 1 79 4 54
222 21.0 17 4 15.4 1 69 2 43
201 18.3 15 8 14.0 1 66 4 65
125 18.3 13 8 14.8 1 75 5 69
1421 23.0 20 12 15.2 1 78 1 34
558 26.8 23 10 17.4 1 73 1 24
280 26.3 23 16 17.1 1 81 1 26
868 25.5 23 27 16.7 1 80 3 31
61 24.2 20 29 16.2 1 69 3 36
1649 27.5 24.5 10 17.3 2 79 0 21
1503 29.0 25 22 17.0 1 76 1 17
585 28.2 27 47 16.0 1 82 1 19
1712 28.8 26 18 18.6 2 80 0 31
503 31.4 30 36 18.4 1 78 2 22
3062 31.2 29.5 32 18.9 1 80 2 19
1561 33.9 32 44 18.5 2 75 0 15
604 34.6 31 48 20.8 1 84 1 17
488 32.8 30 31 19.5 1 80 1 18
692 34.5 32 19 19.2 1 78 1 12
180 35.3 33 34 19.8 2 80 0 16
2415 38.1 36.5 49 17.7 2 82 0 5
1341 40.1 40 29 18.8 2 87 0 9
2915 40.6 40.5 34 18.3 3 85 0 5
1807 40.1 41 42 19.7 2 79 0 7
2826 40.8 40 51 18.0 2 80 0 2
107 41.3 38.5 22 19.9 2 84 0 8
1538 41.8 43 48 17.6 2 84 0 3
533 42.0 42 48 19.4 4 85 0 5
48 41.7 40.5 18 18.9 2 84 0 3
548 42.1 43.5 63 19.9 1 87 1 10
1986 44.3 43.5 45 18.6 3 82 0 1
1746 44.7 41 35 20.0 1 84 1 2
665 42.6 42 24 20.3 3 84 0 7
2075 45.0 44 36 20.4 2 83 0 6
176 46.9 50 51 19.6 3 87 0 3
1266 45.8 47 67 20.2 7 85 0 3
3009 46.6 47 47 20.7 3 85 0 7
573 46.6 46.5 44 19.2 6 85 0 5
931 46.5 48 48 20.0 1 84 1 6
93 46.8 47 68 19.1 4 85 0 3
714 49.7 50 39 18.8 8 86 0 1
2220 49.8 50.5 60 19.1 3 87 0 2
1334 49.5 51 39 20.2 7 85 0 2
1002 51.6 53.5 70 19.0 8 87 0 2
1302 48.3 50 63 18.4 4 86 0 3
2543 52.0 53 52 19.5 6 86 0 2
2169 48.8 49.5 54 18.6 1 86 1 1
39 50.1 50.5 36 20.3 4 87 0 4
1535 50.6 52 71 18.9 9 85 0 0
1014 48.1 51 35 20.6 3 85 0 6
2354 47.6 50 39 20.4 3 87 0 3
2848 51.1 52 39 20.5 3 87 0 3
3091 51.4 53 66 19.8 3 87 0 3
1390 55.2 58.5 62 18.6 2 87 0 3
2813 55.2 56.5 36 18.7 5 87 0 1
2874 54.7 57 57 19.6 6 86 0 2
2470 57.5 62 69 20.1 8 87 0 1
2655 57.4 59 71 18.2 8 86 0 1
857 60.5 63 72 16.8 9 86 0 0
314 61.8 64.5 81 17.8 18 87 0 0
1592 58.4 61 72 20.0 3 87 0 3
1739 63.4 69 81 17.8 10 87 0 0
1555 64.4 67.5 81 15.7 16 87 0 0
433 65.6 70 70 15.9 13 87 0 0
386 65.5 69 84 16.3 11 87 0 0
2340 66.3 70.5 80 16.0 20 87 0 0
1743 64.2 68.5 72 16.5 17 87 0 0
3020 67.9 72 72 15.4 18 87 0 0
1987 68.3 73 85 15.5 11 87 0 0
1834 68.7 72.5 86 15.3 14 87 0 0
120 69.2 72 72 14.5 11 87 0 0
811 71.1 76 86 15.2 20 87 0 0
353 73.5 77 86 13.7 18 87 0 0
2070 74.3 77 87 12.6 36 87 0 0
2486 73.5 78 87 13.7 34 87 0 0
2779 76.1 81 87 12.2 23 87 0 0
1289 77.2 79.5 87 10.8 21 87 0 0
492 79.5 83 87 8.5 43 87 0 0
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Interesting data. Looking at the deviations and the seeding ranges, once you get past the first 8 bots its a pretty open field. It will be fun to try to beat the odds
