Regionals are over so here are the results:
Code:
#1 Alliance Won
All Events 50.00%
FiM 75.00%
Not FiM 45.00%
>50 teams 40.91%
<=50 57.69%
So looks like I was wrong
. All those people who picked 50% - 60% win. I guess those people with 40%- 50% could make a case that they have 50% as well. They also could say district events aren't regionals and thus 45% is correct. I'm only correct (<40%) if you look at >50 team regionals not MSC: 38.09%.
So since I'm already wrong I'm going double or nothing with another prediction:
Only a single #1 alliance will advance to Einstein. It's Lunacy!
(2 #1s advanced last year)
Spreadsheet is attached with more analysis. Tell me if I have any errors. I collected seed data by looking at the alliance brackets on TBA.