I'm not entirely sold on defense this season. Unless I'm blatantly missing something, it seems win/loss ratio does nothing directly in determining seeding/ranks, as it has in the past.
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Originally Posted by Section 9.3.9 of the manual
All TEAMS in attendance will be seeded during the qualification matches. If the number of TEAMS in attendance is 'n', they will be seeded '1' through 'n' with '1' being the highest seeded team and 'n' being the lowest seeded TEAM.
The Field Management System will use the following seeding method:
- TEAMS will be seeded in decreasing order by seeding score.
- Any TEAMS having identical seeding scores will then be seeded in decreasing order by their highest coopertition bonus.
- Any TEAMS having identical seeding scores and highest coopertition bonus will then be seeded in decreasing order by cumulative ELEVATED/SUSPENDED points earned by their ALLIANCES throughout the Qualification Matches.
- Any TEAMS also having identical highest coopertition bonuses will then be seeded based on a random sorting by the Field Management System.
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Reading through the other sections on seeding points (9.3.4 and 9.3.5), the rankings appear to be directly determined by cumulative match scores, rather than win/loss based Qualifying Points of previous years.
Let's say Redateam plays 10 matches, with solid defense, but not much scoring. Their defense is so good, they win every of their 10 matches by a margin of 2-0. Each match nets them a total of 2 seeding points, with no coopertition bonus, as they shut out each of their opposing alliances. After their 10 undefeated matches, Redateam has 20 total seeding points.
Now Bluateam plays 10 matches, has an excellent kicker, elevates, scores as many points as possible in each match, knowing they can outscore the opposing alliance in each. They convince their alliance partners to not play any defense, so all 3 of their robots are potentially scoring. They win only 5 of their 10 matches, but with an average margin of 5-3. This would mean for each win, Redateam gets 5+(3x2 coopertition bonus) = 11 seeding points. 11 points per winning match x 5 matches won = 55 seeding points, just from their 5 wins. The 4 matches they lost were to Redateam's alliance, where Redateam won 2-0. Bluateam gets the same 2 seeding points Redateam gets, as per section 9.3.4. 4 losing matches x 2 seeding points each = 8 points. After 10 matches, winning only half of them, Bluateam has 63 seeding points, to Redateam's undefeated 20. Bluateam is at a much higher ranking than Redateam, even with a 50% loss ratio.
Getting into the top 8 will be a whole new exercise in strategy, offensive power, and control this season. Any overly dominant team will be carefully scoring for the opposing alliance if they really want to push for #1 seed. With that in mind, I disagree with notion that scores will be low. If teams really understand how this seeding system works, any of the "WOW" robots will be able to push double digit scores if they really wanted to, especially if the stars align and 2 or more solid shooters end up on the same alliance.
Of course, once the elimination matches start, it becomes a whole different ballgame, where defense will play a much larger role. Maybe at that point it would be in Bluateam's best interest to chose Redateam for an alliance partner. Who knows? Will 3 strong offensive robots beat out 2 offensive/1 defensive alliances? Only time will tell, but I'd expect a good show in the midfield fighting for the ball returns either way.