Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (all 144 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Code:
Team Avg Rnk Med Rnk Mod Rnk SD Rnk Min Rnk Max Rnk #1 seed Top 8 Avg SS Med SS Stdv SS Min SS Max SS
25 2.17 1.5 1 1.70 1 11 100 198 256 256 18.96 198 307
33 4.585 4 2 3.34 1 18 22 179 234 233 22.23 178 291
254 4.25 3 1 3.65 1 21 39 175 235 238 21.97 165 279
1918 4.51 3 2 3.59 1 18 31 175 234 235.5 23.64 175 280
148 7.765 6 4 5.97 1 35 3 133 216 220.5 24.50 138 266
330 8.325 7 7 6.05 1 50 4 137 212 212.5 22.65 123 260
71 16.435 14.5 7 10.11 2 54 0 51 186 184 26.69 109 243
2062 17.11 14 11 10.26 2 44 0 45 184 185 27.31 125 255
997 16.21 14 10 9.53 1 51 1 47 186 186 24.94 120 251
359 16.125 15 10 9.31 2 54 0 43 186 185.5 25.69 112 265
1 16.1 14 7 10.11 2 56 0 49 186 188 26.72 105 268
118 16.145 13 10 9.79 2 50 0 44 187 189 26.10 113 248
1772 15.94 14 4 9.23 3 43 0 53 187 185 26.13 125 246
1629 16.965 14.5 11 9.96 3 60 0 36 184 186 25.28 111 240
201 16.275 14 11 9.72 2 51 0 41 185 188 26.35 116 257
70 16.64 15 8 9.18 3 51 0 37 184 185 24.60 113 251
1124 28.465 26 25 12.63 4 67 0 5 157 157.5 25.90 90 230
1519 27.405 25.5 19 12.76 4 61 0 5 159 159.5 26.56 95 229
341 27.235 26 22 12.19 4 64 0 6 159 159 25.31 99 232
3280 28.33 27 25 13.80 6 72 0 10 158 158 28.01 86 220
234 28.1 26 20 13.06 2 69 0 9 157 158.5 27.39 89 250
604 28.22 28 14 13.77 4 73 0 10 158 156 27.74 87 227
233 27.72 27 17 13.50 3 74 0 13 159 157 28.33 78 239
2753 26.685 25 19 12.00 3 66 0 10 160 160.5 25.50 97 237
103 27.095 25 31 13.46 4 74 0 6 160 162 27.61 73 222
86 27.3 25 25 13.49 4 62 0 10 160 160 28.06 91 223
45 28.36 26 31 13.17 4 64 0 5 156 158 26.02 92 232
190 26.665 25.5 27 12.42 4 67 0 10 160 161 26.05 90 226
1540 29.055 27.5 27 13.22 5 65 0 5 156 155.5 27.05 96 228
3256 28.11 28 15 12.66 4 66 0 7 157 156 26.25 86 232
1218 27.415 26 30 14.21 4 65 0 15 159 159 29.38 96 237
2574 28.415 27 15 13.16 5 60 0 9 157 156.5 25.93 104 219
1503 27.735 24 12 15.65 2 79 0 13 159 161.5 32.15 74 256
358 41.705 42 52 15.03 7 78 0 2 132 130 26.95 67 208
236 40.725 41 48 14.35 9 85 0 0 133 134 25.78 46 195
1612 43.24 42 42 14.81 13 79 0 0 129 128 26.07 75 187
527 42.85 41.5 35 15.09 10 83 0 0 129 129.5 27.02 51 196
3411 41.205 40 49 14.60 9 84 0 0 132 133 26.14 42 206
375 43.11 43 36 13.97 10 77 0 0 129 128 24.10 67 197
1647 40.435 39 36 15.80 8 81 0 2 134 133.5 27.86 61 206
1111 41.865 41 40 14.49 12 76 0 0 131 132 25.79 73 195
876 39.515 39 37 14.97 6 75 0 2 136 135.5 27.33 66 221
180 41.985 43 44 13.92 9 73 0 0 131 129.5 25.22 78 211
3357 43.685 43.5 21 16.20 8 79 0 1 128 128 28.00 70 212
122 40.65 40 49 15.18 8 84 0 1 133 132 27.15 60 201
3157 43.035 42 36 16.30 10 80 0 0 130 130.5 28.39 59 193
3025 39.5 39 35 14.44 10 77 0 0 136 134.5 25.89 73 202
555 57.435 58 53 14.43 15 85 0 0 104 101.5 24.66 38 181
2854 58.3 61 63 14.89 8 86 0 1 103 98 26.08 43 207
1987 56.35 57 61 14.91 12 86 0 0 105 104 26.13 35 186
159 58.69 59.5 59 13.74 19 86 0 0 102 101 24.85 33 179
3403 56.785 56 67 14.54 19 86 0 0 105 105 25.08 43 173
1622 55.38 56 73 15.42 17 84 0 0 107 107 26.87 50 177
1683 56.685 57 46 15.15 20 85 0 0 105 105 26.39 47 176
3059 54.815 55 74 15.49 14 85 0 0 109 108 26.36 48 179
329 57.33 60 70 16.51 9 84 0 0 104 101 28.94 47 196
1730 56.935 58 68 14.71 18 85 0 0 105 103 25.35 37 170
3360 57.48 58 72 15.71 12 85 0 0 103 105 27.75 50 190
3160 55.855 57 55 14.66 20 83 0 0 106 104 24.75 52 171
3008 56.635 56 60 15.62 21 86 0 0 105 106 27.03 39 168
2751 56.72 55.5 44 14.65 17 85 0 0 105 105.5 25.23 47 170
1153 58.045 61 67 14.55 16 84 0 0 103 99 25.40 50 191
3172 58.08 58 66 14.09 18 85 0 0 102 100 24.61 48 180
1319 55.93 56 52 15.34 10 85 0 0 107 108 27.09 43 211
155 59.26 60 72 14.89 25 85 0 0 100 99 25.89 41 166
1515 57.24 60 60 15.44 13 85 0 0 104 102 26.95 44 188
108 58.275 60 64 15.03 18 86 0 0 102 100 25.88 43 176
967 57.56 57 38 14.24 21 86 0 0 104 103.5 25.36 35 166
3389 71.885 74 81 10.72 33 86 0 0 77 77.5 22.29 30 147
1547 70.71 73 81 12.93 26 86 0 0 79 77 25.46 28 165
1418 70.24 72.5 83 12.36 33 86 0 0 79 78 24.67 30 149
2403 70.865 73 84 12.15 26 86 0 0 79 77.5 24.22 17 158
1817 70.02 73 74 12.30 23 86 0 0 81 79 24.21 26 160
2420 71.13 74 81 10.79 44 86 0 0 78 77.5 22.29 20 132
540 68.855 71.5 73 11.65 32 86 0 0 83 81 22.04 36 145
1596 69.775 73.5 77 12.55 30 86 0 0 81 76.5 23.93 33 150
41 70.405 72.5 70 11.56 34 86 0 0 80 79.5 22.67 24 140
2725 71.56 74 72 11.75 33 86 0 0 77 77 23.47 30 140
326 70.52 73 84 12.03 27 86 0 0 79 78 24.29 25 155
1583 70.145 72 84 11.95 19 86 0 0 80 80 23.59 36 173
269 70.415 74 83 13.56 26 86 0 0 80 78 26.91 15 162
176 71.45 74 71 11.70 31 86 0 0 77 76 23.16 23 146
1506 71.5 75 75 10.78 29 86 0 0 78 74 21.80 26 154
3196 79.615 82.5 86 7.71 50 86 0 0 57 56 21.36 16 123
1768 80.58 83 86 6.69 48 86 0 0 55 53 19.70 17 115
3339 70.18 74 82 11.99 20 86 0 0 80 78 23.00 25 167
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Joe's statistics are interesting... on Curie, we have two teams that seeded top 8 200 out of 200 times. (1114 and 469).
Nobody on Arch has that statistic.
Also, our #1 seed is FAR less distributed, 1114 gets it 150 times, 469 gets it 49 times, and 573 getting it once.