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Unread 15-04-2010, 22:16
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Dmentor Dmentor is offline
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AKA: Daniel Bray
FRC #1895 (Lambda Corps)
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Re: Best matches to watch?

Using 1114's least squares calculations, I estimated the final scores of all the matches and then ranked them based on total and delta scores. In case anyone cares about the details, I used the LS score from the last regional that each team participated in rather than some weighted combination. I then cross-checked the estimates from the matches that were played today and found a pretty good correlation between the predictions and the actual match scores. So encouraged, I figured I'd provide a list of potentially high scoring matches for viewing (here are the top 20):

Code:
Field	Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	Red	Blue	Total	Delta
Newton	87	910	525	932	67	668	971	12.2	17.4	29.7	5.2
Arch.	119	33	1111	233	254	330	45	13.5	15.2	28.7	1.7
Curie	100	469	888	111	1114	231	288	12.2	13.9	26.1	1.6
Arch.	86	2753	358	254	3256	1772	201	13.5	11.4	24.8	2.1
Curie	73	3142	2041	573	2410	2612	469	8.6	15.4	24.1	6.8
Curie	52	469	2345	2648	1912	191	1732	13.1	9.9	22.9	3.2
Newton	56	706	1208	1592	829	16	2771	12.5	9.6	22.2	2.9
Curie	122	573	2865	2583	1676	388	1986	8.9	13.0	21.9	4.2
Newton	110	801	1551	2614	67	612	772	7.6	13.8	21.4	6.2
Newton	104	3038	829	1718	842	2669	337	9.5	11.8	21.3	2.4
Arch.	87	1683	1647	1519	70	25	1503	6.4	14.6	21.0	8.2
Curie	112	2992	40	48	1114	3145	1676	4.6	16.3	20.9	11.7
Arch.	59	1622	25	330	527	1987	1629	13.7	7.2	20.9	6.6
Arch.	95	190	3157	3280	3256	33	3059	8.9	11.9	20.8	3.0
Arch.	63	1772	1124	33	1515	234	1547	16.0	4.3	20.3	11.7
Curie	141	1986	88	368	1764	2345	3145	13.0	7.2	20.3	5.8
Curie	107	231	1391	1649	1732	368	386	8.7	11.6	20.2	2.9
Newton	118	294	1073	16	3306	2669	2415	11.7	8.5	20.2	3.2
Newton	54	102	533	337	67	1902	3176	4.7	15.1	19.9	10.4
Curie	120	2630	537	3230	1391	1114	126	5.8	13.9	19.7	8.1
Several of these matches will probably be a tad one-sided though so I created a second list of high-scoring matches where the predicted score between the alliances is less than 4:

Code:
Field	Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	Red	Blue	Total	Delta
Arch.	119	33	1111	233	254	330	45	13.5	15.2	28.7	1.7
Curie	100	469	888	111	1114	231	288	12.2	13.9	26.1	1.6
Arch.	86	2753	358	254	3256	1772	201	13.5	11.4	24.8	2.1
Curie	52	469	2345	2648	1912	191	1732	13.1	9.9	22.9	3.2
Newton	56	706	1208	1592	829	16	2771	12.5	9.6	22.2	2.9
Newton	104	3038	829	1718	842	2669	337	9.5	11.8	21.3	2.4
Arch.	95	190	3157	3280	3256	33	3059	8.9	11.9	20.8	3.0
Curie	107	231	1391	1649	1732	368	386	8.7	11.6	20.2	2.9
Newton	118	294	1073	16	3306	2669	2415	11.7	8.5	20.2	3.2
Arch.	44	3403	1124	118	359	1583	330	9.6	10.0	19.7	0.4
Newton	141	308	1551	3123	1902	842	3125	9.8	9.8	19.6	0.0
Newton	77	308	1868	2137	3128	1718	525	8.3	10.9	19.2	2.6
Curie	143	624	816	1538	1126	469	340	9.0	10.2	19.2	1.2
Arch.	43	1547	3280	201	329	876	25	8.8	10.4	19.1	1.6
Arch.	83	359	1218	3411	233	190	180	9.9	8.9	18.8	1.0
Galileo	79	217	85	2122	230	1625	1446	10.1	8.7	18.8	1.4
Arch.	124	1772	1987	341	1124	70	2854	8.4	9.8	18.2	1.5
Curie	65	126	368	1649	175	138	2410	8.1	9.9	18.1	1.8
Arch.	135	1918	3157	41	329	70	2753	8.4	9.3	17.7	0.9
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