For the past couple of years, I have been involved with the Central Ohio Robotics Initiative in an attempt to increase the number of teams in Central Ohio involved in FIRST. I have been a mentor for (here you go Dean
FIRST team 1014 since 2003. I also coach cross-country and track & field. All of these experiences have given some insights on why it is hard to grow FIRST (I don't think we have anything like unchecked growth, more like growth just barely larger than required to maintain health) and why it is hard to sustain a team.
#1 - The most obvious: It's expensive to run a FIRST team. It is relatively easy to get funding to start a team, but sustaining one past the first year or two gets harder. In the current economy (the one we had for the past few seasons) it is even harder. Though I will say that my own anecdotal evidence suggest that the record corporate profits for the past year or so is starting to turn that around a little bit. We actually got some sizable money from new corporate donors this year. Thanks largely to a large, motivated group of parents and members of our local business community. If you can get about 5 years (plus or minus) into the program you can develop some more sustainable funding. And hopefully enough cash to bridge the gap in tougher times.
#2 - It is intimidating to start a FIRST team. Even for trained engineers the technical aspects can be intimidating. For a lot of teachers it can be downright scary. For a lot of engineers the thought of working with a couple of dozen teenagers is pretty scary. For the most part, it is VERY hard to start a school based team without a teacher being responsible for it. When you do get a teacher over the initial fear, you have to work to keep that teacher involved, because replacements are hard to find. One of the most important things we have been trying to do with CORI is to help support new mentors. I know that if I resign as the track coach, they will find a replacement for me. If my co-adviser and I both resigned from coaching FIRST in the same year, the program might well die.
#3 - Finding mentors can be difficult. Particularly for a teacher already struggling with the thousand and one things needed to get a new team rolling. Once you find mentors, you have to be able to find people with whom you can work. If the adults don't get along things can go downhill quickly. (See #2: If the adult interactions get too stressful it is really hard to convince a teacher that all of the added work, responsibilities and stress are worth it.)
#4 - When the administration of a school or district changes, you never know how much support you are going to get. These kinds of changes happen every few years in most districts. The average tenure of a high school principal is fairly short and the average tenure of a superintendent is only a few years. When the support level changes it is really easy for a program to die.
I think that "team in every school" goal is the right one. In order to make sure that as many kids as possible have the opportunity to participate if they want to, we need to make FIRST ubiquitous. When we get to the point that starting a new school means "I need to hire a football coach, a track coach, a band director, a theater director, a robotics coach, ..." then we will be in the right position. But getting there is a long, hard road.