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Unread 04-11-2003, 09:49
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Some data (shown below) for the past 12 years shows that our grow rate is starting to taper off. The numbers represent the number of teams that competed, not the number of teams that registered. Some teams sign up but drop out due to lack of funding or whatever.

Check out the % growth and how it has slowed down in the past two years. My prediction is that the growth will continue to slow down. There are 888 teams registered at the time I am writing this. It may even go above 910. But I predict we will have 910 or less teams actually compete in at least one event this year.

Code:
Year     Total         % Gain%
1992      28
1993      25         -10.7%
1994      44          76.0%
1995      59          34.1%
1996      93          57.6%
1997     155          66.7%
1998     199          28.4%
1999     269          35.2%
2000     373          38.7%
2001     517          38.6%
2002     670          29.6%
2003     787          17.5%
2004     910          15.6%
2005    1030          13.2%
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Unread 15-10-2004, 09:41
Ryan M. Ryan M. is offline
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Re: How big will FIRST ever get?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raul
Some data (shown below) for the past 12 years shows that our grow rate is starting to taper off.
...
But I predict we will have 910 or less teams actually compete in at least one event this year.

Code:
Year     Total         % Gain%
1992      28
1993      25         -10.7%
...
2000     373          38.7%
2003     787          17.5%
2004     910          15.6%
2005    1030          13.2%
Raul
Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.
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Unread 15-10-2004, 10:32
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Re: How big will FIRST ever get?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Morehart
Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.
Well, there certainly were less then 1000 teams last year. I'd say the predictions were pretty good, considering almost everyone else expected over 1000. This year there are less then 700 teams registered currently, so I'd expect Raul's prediction to be dead on, or optimistic.
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Unread 15-10-2004, 10:50
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Re: How big will FIRST ever get?

Joe

I agree. I think last year was about 927 teams. Raul came very close, particularly when considering the unknown factor of NASA sponsoring almost 200 teams last year.

FIRST has added 15 % more regionals this year or about 150 more teams.

Looks to me, FIRST is expecting a maximum of 1077 this year.

We shall see.

Mr. Bill
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Unread 15-10-2004, 11:16
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Re: How big will FIRST ever get?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Morehart
Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.
Funny, I had the exact opposite thought. Reading the old posts, I was amazed at how many people were dead on with their predictions.

No one was claiming that FIRST was dying, people were just trying to determine where an equilibrium point may occur.
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Unread 15-10-2004, 11:22
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Re: How big will FIRST ever get?

I don't think has reached saturation, just that the economy has slowed down, and the businesses that support new and old teams are cutting back spending, or disappearing. So I guess there would be fewer team growth. Death isn't through shrinking, but through ideological failure.
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