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Running full speed down a knife edge
Posted by Joe Johnson at 12/24/2000 2:36 PM EST
Engineer on team #47, Chief Delphi, from Pontiac Central High School and Delphi Automotive Systems. In Reply to: Re: 40+% Growth Rate - How Long? Posted by nick237 on 12/23/2000 10:44 PM EST: Both Raul and Nick make two important points. #1 we can't keep the current format forever #2 with the right kind of changes, almost any number can be handles. My view is that we are in a very dangerous race. I don't think many folks realize just how much FIRST is balanced on a knife edge. They have been running down that sharp blade for at least the 5 years I have been involved and in my view they can only keep it up one or 2 more years. The basic problem is this: How can they manage %40 annual compound growth without imploding? FIRST has done a great job managing the problem so far but I really believe that the jig will be up in 2003. That is the year that either FIRST will have landed the big time advertiser bucks or the days of %40 growth are over (maybe the days of ANY growth will be over by then without some major changes or new funding sources). Another major wild card in this whole dangerous game they are playing is the economy, stupid. A tanked economy may even mean that 2002 will have fewer teams than 2001, depending on the general perception of the depth of the crisis. So... I have believed for a long time that FIRST is in a very serious race, the race to get big enough to get enough eyeballs to get access to the pot of goals that is advertising in America. They have to get big enough, fast enough, before they implode from insane growth or to explode from the effects of a downturn in the economy. It is a serious game. One that Dean and Co. are well aware of. The stakes are very high. You know which side I am cheering for. Joe J. |
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