How big will FIRST ever get?

[GregTheGreat]

I have been keeping a close look at this tread, reluctant to reply with any comment, but like usual I have to throw my hat in the ring. I am mainly going to comment on the "sponsorship issue" What the majority of the posts have reflected is the cost involved to be in the FIRST robotics program. The cost I believe will start going down...

Know I know what you are thinking.... You are probably saying what is this guy talking about....prices going down...

Well Here is my logic behind it....
I think that the more teams that compete, the cheaper the fees will start to be for the team. For example: Schools that buy books for there classroom (every school in the world) pay companies that manufacture the books. If you buy 100 books it is a set price per book, lets say fifty dollars. Lets say the school id large and they buy a thousand books, the school will pay a cheaper price, somewhere around forty dollars a book. Now lets say they want to buy five books, they would probably pay seventy, eighty, or ninety dollars a book. So basically the more books that are bought the cheaper they are.

I am comparing this whole "book idea" to the FIRST society. I am saying that we are buying like "100 books" in the example, the more people involved the cheaper the cost will get. Thus creating a more economical program for everyone, and seeing many more teams joining FIRST and having more and more teams compete.

Another Way Costs Will Drop:
I believe we will see that television friendly game mentioned earlier on this topic. The question I think is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. Once we get a game that if "TV friendly" we will see FIRST being broad-casted year round, and attracting more and more high schools to join FIRST. This in turn will lower the cost by FIRST receiving money for "selling" the competition to television stations, and getting large television corporation sponsors. I would not count it out that the cost of regionals will begin to drop in the next few years, as well as the cost of the robot kit.

Once we get team numbers up near 2,000 you will see financial support from the United States Government as well from other governments such as Canada's government. Personally I think that this is one of the best things that governments can do for the future of the country. It insures the future of the countries. The more learned the citizens, the more that country will strive. I would not be surprised to see government getting involved in the FIRST program, especially if it begins being televised on big television channels.

And another thing I would like to point out....
I do not believe that sponsors are not available. Just look at how many rookies we are having this year. The numbers show that interest and money is out there. I know personally that many teams that are underfunded, often by over ten thousand dollars do every possible thing to get that money. One team I remember talking to at a regional last year did fund raisers every weekend at a local business, as well as a year round fundraiser at there school. (In addition to their local sponsorship and school sponsorship) Overall I believe they made money in the neighborhood of eight thousand dollars off of fundraisers. If the interest is there the teams will find a way to keep the team moving financially.

So In Summary (I know many of you have lives and don't want to read through my long post)

-First Will Become cheaper the more teams that we have
-Television Stations become more involved in FIRST
-Government Systems Will Become More Involved
-Sponsors of teams are still available even in our current economy.

-Greg The Great


Just as a general statement, my opinions do not reflect Team Hammond or any of its sponsors.

[dlavery]

Originally posted by GregTheGreat
Once we get team numbers up near 2,000 you will see financial support from the United States Government as well from other governments such as Canada's government. Personally I think that this is one of the best things that governments can do for the future of the country. It insures the future of the countries. The more learned the citizens, the more that country will strive. I would not be surprised to see government getting involved in the FIRST program, especially if it begins being televised on big television channels.

And here I was under the apparently mistaken impression that the Government already was providing significant support for the FIRST program.

Originally posted by dlavery
And here I was under the apparently mistaken impression that the Government already was providing significant support for the FIRST program.

You're trying to say NASA is part of the Government?! Say it isn't so?!

[Michael R. Lee]

The only support is what NASA has deicded to shell out which is peanuts in comparison to what they do for other educational programs. And some of that support is on a "local" level, not "corporate" level.

[Ken Patton]

Call me crazy.

I think the limit is some high fraction (greater than 50%) of the number of high schools in the country. 10,000+ teams.

It'll take a couple decades. Growth is occurring, but it is governed by a small group of enthusiasts and hard workers exciting individual schools around the country. So its gonna take some time. I'm not counting on exponential growth.

I know, 10k+ is a lot of schools. You're thinking, who the heck is going to pay for all of these teams? But here's my scenario.

The number of teams continues to grow slowly in the areas where FIRST has a solid foothold. Employers who need engineers are here, and they will continue to see that FIRST is raising the quality of engineers, scientists, and technicians. In order to compete globally, they need these people. Designing and developing new stuff - stuff that works, that people *have* to have - is what its all about. The employers are in it forever.

Many teams will be funded for the most part by these employers. I think there are many more employers left to sponsor teams, in all parts of the country. They just need to know more about FIRST and the impact it has.

In 10 years, having FIRST experience - in high school, and in senior year of college - will be expected of top engineering grads. Teamwork, first-time-quality, meeting deadlines, competitiveness, .... "What did your team do, Ms. Prospective-new-hire?" "You've been on our team for 8 years now Billy, and now that you have your degree, we'd like to hire you. You already know all of your co-workers and how to get stuff built in our shop. Heres your pocket protector and ID badge. Get to work."

But thats not all... School districts are realizing that "project-based learning" and "engineering 101" experiences are good for their kids. Principals are going to make sure they have a decent electronics lab, computer lab, and *OMG* they need to get a shop class back in the building because they need to build stuff for those electronics and computers to control. Drill press, bandsaw, lathe, mill, NC controls - YES, they're gonna need em. The labs and shops will satisfy the vo-tech crowd AND the college-bound crowd. This project-based stuff ("reality education") is imho trickle-down from what has been going on in engineering universities for over a decade now.

Parents (the ones who vote and pay taxes, the ones that make school boards jump) are going to realize that their districts need to keep up with the Joneses. They will vote for this stuff because, hey, last week on TV they saw a thing about some robotics comp and the kids were psyched about ... LEARNING! They're gonna vote for that stuff bigtime. Someday. After they hear about it or see it.

So additional funding will come from parents who learn about FIRST, learn that it takes some basic elements at the school to do FIRST right - math and science teachers, computers, electronics, a shop - and they'll vote for it. Right alongside the new football field with that cool fake turf. One district after another...

Other parents/schools, in areas where there are fewer hi-tech employers, will want to do the same things because they will see what the FIRST-aware high schools are doing. They will want to have this stuff in their schools too. So, as soon as they hear about it....

[this paragraph might belong in the rumor mill] Companies who want to get people's attention (yeah, all companies) are going to need other ways to advertise. Think about how much is spent on TV commercials. Well, once everyone has tivo and commercials are not so effective, once the shows themselves are saturated with product placement (love those Hummers on CSI, don't ya?), companies are going to need to spend some cash on other forms of product placement. This is where our cool robots (and cool robot games) come along. "Excuse me, Mr. Gatorade-seller, you want to give me $4000 in exchange for a 4" x 6" decal on my bot? It'll probably be on TV at the Detroit Super-Regional in March, and maybe at the Championships in April, and if we qualify it'll be in the International Robotics Grand Prix in Kokomo in June. I'll put it right under my (insert main sponsor here) logo. Can you give us a couple of cases of Fierce Grape? It's hot in the Superdome in April..."

I think people (companies, principals, districts, parents, advertisers) will pay because they want to. Its the American way isn't it?

Assuming, of course, we are exciting enough to get, and stay, on TV.

Ken

[GregTheGreat]

Originally posted by Ken Patton

Assuming, of course, we are exciting enough to get, and stay, on TV.

Ken

Bingo, I think that in the next few years, once FIRST is ready to realize that it will grow big (very very big) they will make a TV friendly game, I am doubtful that it would be this year, but hey ya never know. Although your estimate seems high, I would not be surprised, that possible ten to fifteen years down the road, you may see team numbers up in the 10 thousand area. Although by then we will probably designing robots that are well more advanced then know, and that play a game that is going to have 5 or more "key aspects".

Just my input...

-Greg The Great

[generalbrando]

FIRST has been working on making the game more and more TV/spectator friendly. Does anyone remember Dean talking about that at the kick off? Does anyone also remember how he shed a tear saying the game wasn't fair. (And yet people still whined when it wasn't fair!)

I think the growth is going to continue at a steady pace until it becomes a real media spectacal. It's getting there. My team just had a story done on a local TV network even though we aren't building a bot right now and we didn't win big last year.

More teams!=cheaper (more teams does not equal cheaper). FIRST said long ago that as more and more teams were created, the price of registration would drop, however it hasn't changed that much, despite the growth. I think that they are intent on giving us the best kit they possibly can and that means it's expensive, so I have no complaints - however I don't see it getting much cheaper any time soon.

NASA, IMHO, is helping a lot. Maybe there are other programs that get more, but we're getting something, not nothing. And if I'm not mistaken, they didn't hand out all of their grants last year. Not because they are greedy or needed to cut back - but because not enough teams asked and qualified for them. Correct me if I'm wrong on that - it's what I was told. Anyway, NASA gives registration plus a chunk of change to get some parts and supplies. More money would be nice, but for rookie teams - I would curse NASA for giving them more because it would be a horrible crutch that they would become dependent on. So, Mike, unless you meant the government is the one tossing out just a few peanuts, I'll have to disagree.

[BandChick]

Personally, I believe that as long as there are high schools without FIRST teams, FIRST can and will continue to grow. I think it might be possible to be stuck at a cap for some amount of time, but it will then begin to grow more.

Like Greg said, prices will go down the more teams that compete, and more sponsors will come from the woodwork.

Especially with TV coverage, because after all, what company doesn't want to be recognized world-wide?

[TomWx]

Originally posted by Matt Leese
There simply aren't as many sponsors out there as we would like. And after awhile we'll run out of all the possible sponsors. ...FIRST is an expensive competition. At some point it's going to become very difficult for teams to be able to raise money and then team growth will slow.

Matt

Hey Matt, remember me?

You bring up a good point, as has been said. However, if memory serves me right, this was the first year a cap was placed on spending on the robot. From a team who has never been able to raise enough money for fancy carts, cool shirts, extraordiary buttons, or even a hi-tech machine, it's not so much the lack of sponsors. From where I sit, the problem is two-fold.

First, some teams have an innefective way of exploiting the event. ("It'll get kids involved in robotics." Yeah, that's what a stingy company wants to hear.) Most companies need a better reason than that it's technology in under-funded schools. While the platinum may be hidden, it is only he who turns the rock without destroying the precious substance underneath it who gains the wealth. Only when the team has alot of money do the realize how little they use in the FIRST game, but within the Chairman's award and presenting everything.

The other problem comes with a different type of donation, one that cannot be written off on a tax form: Volunteering. FIRST runs mainly from volunteer time and parts as we all well know. How many adults have spent sleepless nights working on their projects for FIRST? How many people stay behind at events to make sure nothing gets left behind? Not all that is wealth comes with dollars attached.

But back to the original question, FIRST will continue to grow as long as people are interested in tinkering, electricity, and exponential thinking.

[Bduggan04]

Originally posted by GregTheGreat
Well Here is my logic behind it....
I think that the more teams that compete, the cheaper the fees will start to be for the team. For example: Schools that buy books for there classroom (every school in the world) pay companies that manufacture the books. If you buy 100 books it is a set price per book, lets say fifty dollars. Lets say the school id large and they buy a thousand books, the school will pay a cheaper price, somewhere around forty dollars a book. Now lets say they want to buy five books, they would probably pay seventy, eighty, or ninety dollars a book. So basically the more books that are bought the cheaper they are.

I agree that this is the case with something you buy, but kit pieces are largely donated or already at an extreme discount. Other costs a team accumulates (metal, misc. parts, t-shirts) are not bought from a common sponsor and therefore it is impossible to buy in bulk. The major costs come from events and the cost of running the organization. Unfortunately both of these costs rise with more teams. There is no discount based on how many stadiums you rent and the model you describe is really not applicable to FIRST because of these compounding variables.

As far a TV broadcasts go, I have a hard time seeing big bucks coming from it. High school football is not popular on TV as a nation and FIRST shares a common inherent obstacle. People watch games where they can identify with a team. They follow that team and cheer for it. It is hard to have that kind of loyalty when the teams are 800 strong let alone 10000. Coupled with the fact that teams only play for 2 minutes every hour it becomes even harder. The best bet for a television show as I see it is to concentrate on the season as a whole, not just the matches. Shows like "Monster Garage" and "Junkyard Wars" are only %10-%25 competition because people are interested in the process. The game not only needs to be entertaining, you need variety in design, creativity and it has to blow people away. A flashy interface and presentation is also necessary. The problem with becoming a Discovery channel type show is that the money could be good or it could be nothing. Remember, the network has to make money for you to do well on a TV show.

[Ryan M.]

Originally Posted by Raul

Some data (shown below) for the past 12 years shows that our grow rate is starting to taper off.
...
But I predict we will have 910 or less teams actually compete in at least one event this year.

Year     Total         % Gain%
1992      28
1993      25         -10.7%
...
2000     373          38.7%
2003     787          17.5%
2004     910          15.6%
2005    1030          13.2%

Raul

Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Ryan Morehart

Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.

Well, there certainly were less then 1000 teams last year. I'd say the predictions were pretty good, considering almost everyone else expected over 1000. This year there are less then 700 teams registered currently, so I'd expect Raul's prediction to be dead on, or optimistic.

[Bill Beatty]

Joe

I agree. I think last year was about 927 teams. Raul came very close, particularly when considering the unknown factor of NASA sponsoring almost 200 teams last year.

FIRST has added 15 % more regionals this year or about 150 more teams.

Looks to me, FIRST is expecting a maximum of 1077 this year.

We shall see.

Mr. Bill

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by Ryan Morehart

Sorry for bringing up this old topic, but I was just amazed at the difference in prediction vs. reality. FIRST isn't dying yet.

Funny, I had the exact opposite thought. Reading the old posts, I was amazed at how many people were dead on with their predictions.

No one was claiming that FIRST was dying, people were just trying to determine where an equilibrium point may occur.

[Joe Matt]

I don't think has reached saturation, just that the economy has slowed down, and the businesses that support new and old teams are cutting back spending, or disappearing. So I guess there would be fewer team growth. Death isn't through shrinking, but through ideological failure.