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Unread 25-11-2004, 12:08
EddieMcD EddieMcD is offline
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Playoff Analysis: Pre-Week XII

With three weeks left, the playoff race picks up. Problem is, unlike last year, this is an extremely tight race, especially amongst the five 6-5 teams vying for the last three spots. Also note that amongst prettymuch every team (with the obvious exception of The Shoats), a tie may as well be a loss.

  • Cooney still needs one win. They’ll also clinch with a loss from any two of the Monkeys, Charge, Fumblers, Cats, or Bonecrushers.
  • Philly can clinch with two more wins, or a win and a loss from any two of the Monkeys, Charge, Fumblers, Cats, or Bonecrushers.
  • Shoats, Girls, and Jets will clinch if they win out, or two wins and a loss from any two of the Monkeys, Charge, Fumblers, Cats, or Bonecrushers (and yeah, one win and two losses from any two of those five, if you want me to be complete).
  • Monkeys, Charge, Fumblers, Cats, and Bonecrushers are going to have to keep winning in such a tight race. As it stands, even winning out, they could possibly not make it (that’s 5 teams, 3 spots), though they could also make it on as little as a single win and a decent fantasy score (and I suppose they can lose the rest of their games and still make it with a lot of help).
  • Crushers and Dunedain are going to need at least two of three wins (and some help) to stay competitive (they, however, can lose two games and not directly be mathematically eliminated).
  • Lightning, Juggernauts, and Clan are going to need to win out (with help) to stay competitive (they, however, can lose another game and not directly be mathematically eliminated).
  • TSfR and Borg need to win out to even hope for a playoff spot. They’ll need a lot of help as well.
  • And thanks for playing Ryan, but the Hurricanes are eliminated.

And hey, we can also make some amazing assumptions based on the schedule.

  • In that 6-5 bracket, only one more game is played between themselves. It’s Week 14, Monkeys vs. Bonecrushers. It’s too early to tell the exact impact of this game, but it is likely that this game will have dire consequences for the loser. An interesting note here is that if this game ties, no matter what else happens, Cooney will clinch a playoff spot under my previous “tie may as well be a loss” clause.
  • Speaking of that 6-5 bracket, Rhode Island has both Philly and the Girls on their schedule. If they win those two, they may as well be guaranteed a playoff spot.
  • Also in that 6-5 bracket, only the Fumblers finish off their schedule with three teams under .500. So while they will have no direct impact on their fate, they will have an easier time winning out, and most likely taking a playoff spot in the process.
  • Since I’m on a roll with these 6-5s, both the Monkeys and Cats have two teams under .500, and another game which can directly affect them. They can afford to lose one against the sub-.500 teams, but they’ll definitely want to win the other game.
  • And finishing off the 6-5 teams, the Bonecrushers have The Shoats and Monkeys on their schedule. If they can win both of those, they’ll most likely be in the playoffs.
  • Philly has a chance to play spoiler, with both the Charge and Cats on their schedule.
  • Of Dunedain and Nor Cal (the 5-6 teams), Dunedain has the easier schedule, with their schedule being three teams below .500, compared to the Crushers one. That one: Dunedain themselves! In Week 14, these two teams face off. This battle may determine a low playoff spot, and it’s almost guaranteed that the loser will miss out on the playoffs.
  • While technically, any team in the top 10 right now is eligible to win the coveted number one seed, we can be realistic in saying that really only the top 5 have a shot. And it’s still anyone’s spot. These five teams are heavily interwoven between themselves in the rest of their schedules, with four games directly involving each other. In fact, it’s likely at least one of these teams will miss the playoffs (barring extreme tragedy in the 6-5 bracket). Cooney has the Girls and Shoats; Philly has the Jets and two 6-5 teams; The Shoats have the Girls, Cooney, and one 6-5 team; the Girls have The Shoats, Cooney, and one 6-5 team; and the Jets have the easiest schedule of the top 5 with only Philly being any real obstacle. It’s too tangled a web right now to give an exact picture of who needs to beat whom to get to the top and what happens when they do, but it’s certainly going to be interesting.
  • The Girls and Shoats have the toughest of the top 5 schedules (keeping in mind that The Shoats can afford a tie), and realistically, both are going to have to win out for a playoff spot. Problem is that they face each other in Week 12, meaning that the loser may start a downward spiral from there.
  • And I just find this simply hilarious in that the Clan essentially need to win out against Cooney, Rhode Island, and South Florida. Though if they manage to do that, they deserve the playoff spot.
This is a very exciting playoff race, with the top 12 well in contention for 8 playoff spots, and even up through the 15 spot are teams who have a decent shot. Unfortunately, this makes analyses very difficult. Hopefully, it’ll be easier next week. Of course, I’m secretly hoping it’s not. It’s more exciting that way.
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