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Unread 04-12-2004, 01:38
EddieMcD EddieMcD is offline
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Re: 2004 Season for Fantasy Football, FIRST Robotics league

Two weeks left, twelve teams in the hunt, eight playoff spots. Two of these spots are clinched (well, one solid, and one technically, more on that later). But that still leaves ten teams vying for the last six spots. What will happen? Here’s how it is:
  • First of all, it should be noted that a tie may as well be a loss in a race this tight (with the exception of The Shoats).
  • We’re disregarding fantasy scores unless noted.
  • Cooney has clinched, plain and simple.
  • The Shoats have technically clinched. Okay, let me clarify. If you look at it from a mathematical standpoint, they need either one win, or a loss from any one of the Monkeys, Charge, Fumblers, Cats, or Girls to clinch. But then we look at Week 14 and see that the Girls and Charge play each other. So, there’s your one loss. There is one way The Shoats can miss the playoffs, and this situation is so unlikely that you’re better off playing Powerball than betting on this happening. The Shoats will only miss if they lose out, Monkeys, Fumblers, and Cats all win out, the Charge and Girls both win week 13, and the Charge/Girls game in week 14 ties (and even then, the Girls would have to make up a 200 fantasy point difference). And since a tie is so rare (especially on a specific game), I don’t like to include them in these playoff analyses. So rather than list all that, I’m just going to go ahead and say The Shoats have clinched.
  • Philly and Jets will clinch with either one win, or if one of the 7-5 teams lose out and both Dunedain and Bonecrushers lose one game.
  • Charge and Girls will clinch if they win out due to them facing in Week 14. Monkeys, Fumblers, and Cats will also clinch if they win out, due to the fact only four out of five 7-5 teams can possibly win out. Both situations will cause at least one team to be knocked below this bracket (and possibly into ninth if everyone stays in the spots they're in), making these win-out clinches possible.
  • Dunedain and Bonecrushers will want to win both games, and will want a couple of the 7-5 teams to lose out. They can, however, lose a game and not directly be eliminated.
  • Crushers need to win out to stay in the race. They’ll also need some help (which they themselves can actually provide).
  • And finally, Lightning, Juggernauts, TSfR, Clan, Borg, and Hurricanes are all mathematically eliminated.
  • On the number one spot, this is much simpler than it was last week. Cooney will clinch number one with either a win, or a loss from all of the Shoats, Philly, and Jets. On the flip side, the Shoats, Philly, or Jets can only possibly nab number one if they win out, and Cooney loses out.
Whew, that was a mouthful. Here are some interesting games on the schedule:
  • Jets and Philly face off this week. The winner of this game clinches a playoff spot.
  • This week also has the Crushers and Cats. The first of the Crushers’ challenges is in that 7-5 bracket, and if they win, they are directly helping themselves.
  • Week 14, Crushers and Dunedain. If the Crushers were victorious in their previous game, this game will most likely decide the number eight spot (okay, I’m done explaining my math )
  • Also Week 14 is the Girls/Charge game. The loser is most likely out, and the winner is most likely in.
  • There’s the Cats and Cheesesteaks Week 14. If Philly lost the previous week to the Jets and the Cats eliminated the Crushers in the previous week, this game may determine a low playoff spot.
  • Monkeys/Bonecrushers in Week 14 will not be pretty for the loser.
  • And what should be one of the best games of the year, Cooney and The Shoats square off Week 14. Could this game also determine the winner of the number one seed?
This is even more of a puzzle than last week. At least next week, I’ll finally have closure. Stay tuned for what is turning out to be a darn good playoff race.
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