Predictions Week 4: Marking the Thrower

[Looking Forward]

A variety of strategies continue to be successful in Ultimate Ascent, but there's one factor that dramatically changes how the game is played; the presence of full court shooters. Regardless of their success, a robot with this capability being on the field changes the complexion of the match entirely. It goes well beyond the hastily constructed pool noodle and duct tape blockers, as both alliances will adapt their strategy in an attempt to manipulate the radically different game play to their benefit. It doesn't always work out for the full court shooter, especially if their alliance isn't flexible enough to put up significant points from elsewhere, but their presence makes an impact.

When a legitimate full court shooter is present in the eliminations, the other alliance typically attempts to either block their shots and/or prevent them from reaching the protected corner loading station. Some alliances chose to counter this by scoring primarily from the pyramid, hoping they can outscore the opposition in a more typical fashion, with the threat of the full court shot forcing the opposing defense to remain "honest" (especially if an 84" blocker locks the defender into their own auto zone, cuts off their route underneath the pyramid, and sometimes prevents them from hanging). The winners at Central Valley, Northern Lights, and Springside-Chestnut Hill used other alliance partners to clear the corner and fend off blockers to establish the corner shooter's position and allow them to rack up as many points as possible (even at the expense of offense elsewhere). However, this hasn't always been successful, as shown in the St. Louis finals match 2, where 1444 and 1288 weren't able to clear enough space for 1706's shots to avoid 3284's unfolding blocker. In Greater Kansas City, 1806 often served as a decoy to shift the defensive attention away from 1986's quick and consistent cycles.

It doesn't matter much if the full court shooter is targeting the 2-point goal or gunning for 3s. The constant stream of discs is usually enough to heavily swing the tele-op score in favor of one alliance. The exception being when 2826's flurry of two pointers quickly fell behind the three pointers being launched from the opposite corner by 2169 at Northern Lights. It will be intriguing to see if the two-pointers continue to work as the season progresses, especially when matched against high octane scoring machines capable of 4+ cycles.

Just as the prior weeks, week four will have several full court shooters in play. Many high profile teams opted to shoot from the pyramid, including ones capable of launching the length of the field. This decision particularly makes sense for the shorter and quicker robots, such as 987, 610, and 118, who would have serious problems with blockers but utilize their ability to scoot underneath the pyramid well. This has often presented an opportunity for lesser known teams to make a name for themselves as full court specialists. This weekend will showcase some of each (as well as plenty of competitive bots of other designs), many of which will be competing for the second time. Watch to see how their competitors adapt to them, and how their strategies have evolved with an event under their belt.

Observations and foresight:

• I took quite a while for 225 to win their first event, but they did just that at Chestnut Hill last weekend. They're hoping the next wait is much much shorter, as they're bringing their full court shooter to Lenape-Seneca this weekend. They scored 100+ points in each of their last six qualification matches at SCH (at the match before that was 98 points), and only missed that mark once in their eight elimination matches. Don't expect Lenape to be a cakewalk, as they should face some stiff competition from 365, 1403 (both of which sport 5 disc auto modes), 2729, and 293 (who ended a winless drought in their own right, taking home gold for the first time since 2007 at TCNJ).
• Who owns the only streak of 100+ qualification scores longer than 225's? 987. The High Rollers' reached the mark in eight consecutive seeding matches at San Diego. They further raised the bar in the eliminations, as their alliance averaged 176.67 points on their run to gold. They're the presumptive favorite in Utah this weekend, especially if they manage to align themselves with 359's rapid firing machine. Given the High Rollers' penchant for undefeated runs and high seeds, I wouldn't bet against that happening.
• Continuing the one-upsmanship, the only alliance to outscore the 987/254/1138 group was the #1 at GTR-East, who averaged 185.5 points per match, totaling 1113 points (oh so close!). Both 1114 and 2056 will be at Waterloo, and if their history of stepping up another notch at the event continues, they could top that mark.
• Both California events include less notable teams attempting to earn their reputation as full court threats. 589 and 599 were competitive in San Diego, but their low release points makes them easier to block, and may force them to find create offense from other locations in Los Angeles. 256 has traditionally struggled to reach the eliminations, but has an accurate full court shooter in 2013. They may have to take some heat off their shot, as they struggle to keep discs in the goal. Even if they aren't a reliable scoring threat, they could potentially feed a ground loader at Davis.
• Integration by Parts played well enough to be the top pick and champion at Granite State. Their twins, Division by Zero will look to step up their game at Boston. 229 should be competitive, but might better fit into the secondary scoring role that 4124 filled than as a primary contributor. Especially if they aim to take down 3173, 126, or 125.
• Central Washington's field is inhabited by plenty of capable scoring machines, and if you had to pick only one, 1983 might be the best pick of the bunch. The Ultimate Scent will be competing for the first time this season, against some battle tested veterans in the form of 1425's triangular based corner shooter, 360's compact scoring machine, and two teams hungry for a better offensive output with machines that have the potential for more (2046 and 488).
• After winning all the way back in week one at Palmetto, the Mount Olive Robotics Team looks to be the home field favorite at the Mount Olive district. 11's impressive shooting machine should be among the best teams at the event, and has the advantage of having already competed. Some of the other top competitors, such as 1676, 75, and 555, will likely still have to work out some issues and are unlikely to be at 100% right out of the gate.
• One of the advantages of the "left wing lock" style defense that was mentioned in last week's LF post is that it keeps the middle of the field clear. While many events have turned into midfield rugby scrums when the defense is applied in eliminations, quick cycling machines want to avoid that scenario. More traffic at the center line often ends up slowing down both alliances, mitigating the quick cycling robot's tele-op advantage.
• Whichever alliance owns the controls the court traffic often picks up the win in the eliminations, especially if they have an advantage in autonomous or climbing points. Thus why multiple events have been governed by aggressive, man-to-man defense. Queen City has the potential to be another, as it seemingly lacks teams that would prosper in a run-and-gun system. Watch for 48, 1014, 1038, 1985, and 3138 to all be in the hunt, but it's going to take a well rounded alliance and good teamwork to survive the elimination tournament.
• Almost every team at the Phoenix regional will be taking the playing field for the first time. Local Hall of Famers 842 have a solid shot at being the top team at the event, but it's far from a lock. Last year's finalists 498 and San Diego vets 2543 should be among the better teams as well.
• The Robowranglers are the most notable team to unveil a machine specialized for full court bombs so far. 148 had the benefit of a very dangerous, floor loading alliance partner to shift the pressure off of them at Lone Star. They won't find a partner quite that quality at Dallas, and as a result, they may face the stifling defense that has offense been applied to them at Texas events. If the Robowranglers are shut down, look for 231, in particular, to be the best bet to carry the load for them as an alliance partner or bury them as an adversary.
• 1678 has won Sacramento in each of the past two seasons, and captained the #6 alliance to victory at CVR. But the Citrus Circuits were often playing lead blocker for 840's corner shooter at the week one event, and are going to need to improve their own scoring and find their autonomous groove if they want to three peat at their home event.
• 971 definitely has the most upside of all the teams at UC Davis this weekend, but will need to avoid issues with their code and try to find their rhythm during practice and early qualification matches. If they falter, 1662 could seize the opportunity.
• Teams that successfully climb for 30 points multiple times at an event usually find themselves in the eliminations. Success once in the Saturday afternoon tournament has been hard to come by, though. 2992 has a machine that appears to be more than capable of a relatively quick and relatively simple ascent, and has the ability to add 20 points in colored discs once at the summit. If they can find the consistency that has eluded so many climbers, they will certainly be a significant player at Bayou.
• Two of the NASA base teams had very different stories during week 2, but both ultimately reached the finals. 118 captured gold at Lone Star with their quick ground loading and relentless shooting, but still has some room for improvement in the accuracy department. 233 got off to yet another slow start in Florida, yet managed to find themselves a single disc away from capturing the regional yet again (this time as a defensive specialist). Pink is known for dramatically increasing their performance as the season progresses, and has the potential to blossom into an offensive machine at Bayou this weekend. Minimally, they should fix the 10-pt hanging issue that cost them the finals in Orlando. The Robonauts will be favored at the event, but if Pink manages to start tapping into their potential, Bayou might resemble the 2005 Colorado regional, where the two of them teamed up and stormed the elimination rounds.
• A lot of question marks, but even more upside, at Long Beach this weekend. The most attention will be paid to the unveiling of the 1717 and 330 machines. The Beach Bots usually come out ready to play, but this difficult challenge may result in them having more work to do come practice day than other years (and to give up some functionality as a result). D'Penguineers ambitious design philosophy often leaves them with plenty of work for Thursday, and if that results in a slow start, it will be much harder for them to control their destiny. 3309 may be the sleeper at the event. Even if they don't spend much tele-op time shooting, a corner climbing, pyramid dumper with the ability to shoot in autonomous will be a very dangerous machine.
• 973 and 294 will look to improve on their first outings in Los Angeles. 973 was a solid scoring machine at CVR, and should be one of the better ones once again this weekend, especially if they can their new intake and autonomous working together. Beach Cities Robotics showed flashes of potential, but couldn't get past their issues. If they have worked them out, they'll be a threat as well.
• 33 appears to be the favorite at a strong Grand Blanc district, but the rest of the field will give them a run for it. 1718 was the captain of their winning alliance and Waterford, and 245 won Palmetto. And there should be plenty of support beyond that level, with 1684 bringing a solid ground loading machine that reached the finals at Kettering (despite lacking a hanging mechanism) and 51 utilizing smart play and pyramid goal scoring to reach the same stage at Waterford.
• Four teams at the West Michigan district have already taken home gold from prior districts, all of them playing key roles, and all as the #1 alliance. 862 was the only one of the bunch not to seed #1, as they seeded all the way down at #2 and were selected first overall at Kettering. 1918 is coming off an undefeated event at Traverse City. 2054 survived a nail-biting finals match-up at Gull Lake. 70 captained the winning alliance at Kettering, and is playing with their twin, 494 (#3 selection, QF at Waterford), for the first time this season. And don't let the fact that 68 hasn't won an event yet discourage you from counting them among the favorites at the event. Lots of firepower to go around come alliance selection at West Michigan.
• Waterloo will be one of the most interesting events for the new wildcard qualification system. Five teams (610, 781, 1114, 1241, and 2056) have already qualified for Championship at a previous event this season. Four of them will definitely be in the mix to win the event, and the Kinetic Knights aren't too shabby, either (but will need a big time alliance partner to advance past the semis). It's very plausible that two wild card spots will get punched on Saturday. Given all the high end firepower, this will likely be an event won prior to alliance selection. Securing the #1 seed will be critical.
• Sparks should fly at Wisconsin this weekend, which has two huge debuts, four teams that punched their ticket to CMP already in 2013, and a number of hungry competitors. 269 and 16 were critical components of the finalist alliances at Northern Lights and Hub City, respectively. 2826's full court shooter led that Northern Lights alliance, including a quarter-final victory over 1st (declined) selection at the event, 2512. 1732 captained an alliance that twice broke 100 points at Boilermaker, despite losing in the quarter-finals. But all eyes will be on the machines that 111 and 71 unbag. This deep event with several high powered teams has the potential for some very intense elimination matches, and could give us our first clues as to how the Championship eliminations might unfold.
• It's a dawn of a new era for the four time FRC Champion from Hammond, Indiana. It's going to be strange hearing 71's full name and sponsors announced without their often eponymous former lead sponsor and Woodie Flowers winning mentor. 2012 was the first time since 1995 that Championship lacked the Beatty Beast, and now all of FIRST will have to go without it in 2013.

[Akash Rastogi]

Sad note about 71 to end on, Looking Forward.

Good luck to all teams competing this weekend.

PS- I would add 219, 222, and 193 into the mix for Mt. Olive district. 193 is MORT Beta and definitely will be a factor at this event.

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Sad note about 71 to end on, Looking Forward.

Good luck to all teams competing this weekend.

PS- I would add 219, 222, and 193 into the mix for Mt. Olive district. 193 is MORT Beta and definitely will be a factor at this event.

As a follow up to this, 222 and 11 won the event as 1st and 2nd seed respectively. 193 was seeded 5th and captained the #4 alliance. Spectacular job. 219 was ranked 3rd at the event.

[twetherbee]

987 was initially signed up for the Utah Regional, but withdrew. We don't compete again until the Las Vegas Regional.

[Madison]

We're carrying in a replacement for all of our frisbee-related functionality. It's mostly a bolt-on job; tear off the old top and replace it with the new one, but there's a bit of rewiring work to be done as well.

We've switched from a linear-ish storage system for frisbees that caused a lot of control systems challenges to a collector + bucket system. We should be collecting frisbees much faster now and, with the mechanism that was causing frisbees to jam completely gone, firing much faster and more reliably. And in the 3 pt. goal, too. The new system replaces everything -- new collector, new bucket storage, and new shooter -- and reuses only the electronics board.

The whole thing is about 22 lbs. We prototyped a bit with buckets in the week after Portland, designed the entire new system in about 3 hours on Saturday morning and had the entire thing assembled and testing by Sunday evening. I'm not sure what took us 6 weeks the first time around.

[AlecMataloni]

2512 is competing at Midwest, not Wisconsin.

Otherwise, awesome predictions!

[HayWire1569]

Originally Posted by twetherbee

987 was initially signed up for the Utah Regional, but withdrew. We don't compete again until the Las Vegas Regional.

Sad to hear, Haywire was really looking forward to seeing your amazing machine tomorrow!!! Good luck in Las Vegas though!

[Shane 2429]

Originally Posted by twetherbee

987 was initially signed up for the Utah Regional, but withdrew. We don't compete again until the Las Vegas Regional.

Pity, though LV will be loads of fun with the quality of teams attending and it will be great to be competing at a regional with you guys again.

[twetherbee]

Originally Posted by HayWire1569

Sad to hear, Haywire was really looking forward to seeing your amazing machine tomorrow!!! Good luck in Las Vegas though!

Thanks. Wish we could have made it to Utah. Maybe next year. Good luck this weekend.

Originally Posted by Shane 2429

Pity, though LV will be loads of fun with the quality of teams attending and it will be great to be competing at a regional with you guys again.

See you in Vegas. Good luck next weekend at Inland Empire.

[XaulZan11]

With all due respect, Looking Forward, the exclusion of 2481 at Wisconsin is crazy. Finalist (as #1 seed) twice in the last three seasons, fastest minibot on Newton in '11 and this year bring a 23 second climb and dump, and an accurate shooter. After 2826, I think 2481 is the favorite to win Wisconsin.

At Wisconsin, I also wouldn't forget about 3940 (climber-dumper with an 18 pt auto), 1716 (slot loaded, accurate pyramid shooter) and, as a deep sleeper, 2039 (tall, full court shooter).

[Andrew Zeller]

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

With all due respect, Looking Forward, the exclusion of 2481 at Wisconsin is crazy. Finalist (as #1 seed) twice in the last three seasons, fastest minibot on Newton in '11 and this year bring a 23 second climb and dump, and an accurate shooter. After 2826, I think 2481 is the favorite to win Wisconsin.

At Wisconsin, I also wouldn't forget about 3940 (climber-dumper with an 18 pt auto), 1716 (slot loaded, accurate pyramid shooter) and, as a deep sleeper, 2039 (tall, full court shooter).

I agree with you especially about 2481. Wisconsin is going to be interesting this year because there will be so many elite teams. We could end up seeing eliminations where the top 3 or 4 alliances each have two insanely high caliber robots (for example, 2826 +2481, 111 + 71, 16 + another breakout team). I honestly don't know if we have seen any elims of this depth yet this season. I also anticipate some 30 pt hangers being possible third picks for lower seeded alliances.

I think 930 is notable at the Wisconsin Regional as well.

**1716 will be bringing some improvements to WI which will include a faster redesigned shooter and a fun defensive weapon.

[Travis Hoffman]

Watch for 379 at Queen City.

[Rangel]

Also watch out for 1726 the nerds and 4183 bitbuckets. Nerds did pretty well at San Diego and I hear Bitbuckets have a pretty solid robot this year. Az should be fun this year!

[Bdf809]

I'd keep an eye on 2557 in Central Washington, along with the others.

[Akash Rastogi]

Gonna drop in team 2403 for Arizona. They seem to have a super clean and effective robot this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgX8VGxl7Jw