9th seed decline

[Caleb Sykes]

Has a 9th seed ever declined? Did anyone ever have the guts/motivation to do so?

Here is my story.
At the Lake Superior Regional this year, we ended the quals seeded 9th. We were reasonably assured that we would be one of the first few picks. Since there were a few good robots in the top 8, and we didn't necessarily want to be with the number 1,2, or 3 seeds, I threw out the idea of declining. I immediately got shocked silence, then horrified stares, then threats on my life (I was going to be the team representative). I was told that if I declined, I would be walking the 100+ miles back home that night.

My question is, under what circumstances (if any) would you decline a pick as a 9/10 seed? Apparently, you still have a 96% chance of being a captain as a 9th seed.

Here is the alliance selection data from every competition this year. Thanks to team 2834 for providing their championship scouting database from which I made this.

[Kevin Leonard]

I remember a story from Karthik's strategy talks from 2011 where they were seeded just outside the top 8 (I wanna say about 11th, but I could be wrong), and Team 1771 was seeded 1st. Karthik knew that with 1771, they had little chance at a world championship, but hesitated to decline because they could end up not being in eliminations at all.

This year, in Archimedes, we (20) were seeded 10th. There were a few teams that had the potential to seed inside the top 8 that we weren't comfortable being on an eliminations alliance with. We told our field representative that if she managed to be on the field as a captain by the time one of these teams tried to pick us, she should decline and we'd take our chances as an 8 seed captain. That situation didn't end up happening, as these teams ended up losing the matches they had the potential to win and seeding behind us.

But if we were the 9 seed and a 1-6 seed captain tried to pick us that we weren't comfortable competing with, we'd absolutely decline if there was some chance we could end up an alliance captain instead.

[Boe]

this is probably one of the most interesting situations that can arise during alliance selection.

Karthik discussed just how screwy this situation can get during his 2012 presentation at champs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apk_X-maRf8
from ~1:29:20 to ~1:35:00

[iVanDuzer]

Originally Posted by Boe

this is probably one of the most interesting situations that can arise during alliance selection.

Karthik discussed just how screwy this situation can get during his 2012 presentation at champs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apk_X-maRf8
from ~1:29:20 to ~1:35:00

Link to the relevant story. Thought it'd be easier for everybody.

[Redo91]

It seems that you are saying as a 9th seed you can decline, then move up to the number 8 position if it opened up(it usually does).

It was my understanding that if you were not an alliance captain and declined, you were out for good. This would explain your team's shocked silence.

What have past rules been governing this?

[Nemo]

Originally Posted by Redo91

It seems that you are saying as a 9th seed you can decline, then move up to the number 8 position if it opened up(it usually does).

It was my understanding that if you were not an alliance captain and declined, you were out for good. This would explain your team's shocked silence.

What have past rules been governing this?

The rule is that once you decline an invitation, you cannot be invited by anybody else. Declining does not prevent you from being an alliance captain, regardless of whether you started out in the top 8 or not.

[Redo91]

Originally Posted by Nemo

The rule is that once you decline an invitation, you cannot be invited by anybody else. Declining does not prevent you from being an alliance captain, regardless of whether you started out in the top 8 or not.

That cleared it up, thanks.

I knew that alliance captains could not be chosen after they declined. I was unaware that you could still move up from 9 to 8 after declining. I never encountered a circumstance like that in my time as a high school student.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Redo91

That cleared it up, thanks.

I knew that alliance captains could not be chosen after they declined. I was unaware that you could still move up from 9 to 8 after declining. I never encountered a circumstance like that in my time as a high school student.

Good for you. It's not a fun situation to be put into. Even now, we have what-if scenarios from Archimedes. "What if we had declined 948?" They usually end with "Well regardless of what kind of alliance we built, we'd have been against 987 and 2415- so we would have lost."
Karthik's story would have been a bit different. A 1114-973-341 alliance? THAT would have been crazy in 2011. (Heck, this year that would be crazy!)

[Koko Ed]

@ THE 2009 FLR the 13th seed declined a selection from the 3rd seed in hopes of getting in as the 8th seed.
They didn't quite make it in.

[Racer26]

I know I've seen it at least once, where a 8-13 seed declined, planning to make an alliance captain spot, and got hung out to dry. I don't remember where it was though.

I also know my team was seeded 11th or so one year, and thought we'd make elims as a captain, but were not selected at all (we weren't that good) and only 2 selections within the top 8 happened, leaving us as the first backup bot, at 11th seed.

[purduephotog]

Originally Posted by Koko Ed

@ THE 2009 FLR the 13th seed declined a selection from the 3rd seed in hopes of getting in as the 8th seed.
They didn't quite make it in.

Yep. I was pretty shocked. I took photos of that moment. The individual ended up walking off the field when he realized what he'd done.

[IKE]

As it hasn't been mentioned, beware of "Scorched Earth". While the #9 almost always bubbles up, the exact reason you may want to decline a #1 may be the exact reason you want to accept a #1. Occasionally the team in #1 will get turned down by the majority of the other alliance captains. This can lead to a #9 rank getting left outside of the draft.

[Caleb Sykes]

What interests me are the 5 events this year where there was little/no interpicking in the top 8. They are:
No interpicking:
Curie Division
Hatboro Horsham
Buckeye

1 interpick:
Traverse City
Oregon

Can anyone provide insight as to the selections at these events? Were there a lot of top 8 declines? Was there a high seeded team that no one wanted to be with?

[Justin Montois]

Originally Posted by Koko Ed

@ THE 2009 FLR the 13th seed declined a selection from the 3rd seed in hopes of getting in as the 8th seed.
They didn't quite make it in.

Originally Posted by purduephotog

Yep. I was pretty shocked. I took photos of that moment. The individual ended up walking off the field when he realized what he'd done.

The team was 610. They declined assuming out sister team, 424 would select our team. When that didn't happen the writing was on the wall. It was not a 'mistake' it was a calculated risk that did not work in their favor.

[Garrett.d.w]

Originally Posted by inkling16

Can anyone provide insight as to the selections at these events? Were there a lot of top 8 declines? Was there a high seeded team that no one wanted to be with?

I can shed a little light on Oregon.
Oregon is a huge event with many robots of varied build and design quality. This, mixed with the process through which the seeding rounds are formed created many 3 on 1 matches throughout the day, often with desirable robots loosing matches even though they played beautifully. Anyway, seeding was very unkind to generally good teams (Mean Machine, Bear Metal, Flaming Chickens, SOTA Bots, all played several 3 on 1) and very kind to average teams (such as my own, where we were carried by our alliance partners). This all created a situation where people in the top 8 took risks on robots that didn't seed too well because there were no sure picks in their own ranks. Just to give you an idea at how wonky things were, the winning alliance seeds were 1, 19, and 25. The bots on our alliance were seeded 8, 12, and 34.