Michigan District Event Difficulty

[Bryce Paputa]

I've been working on a bunch of scouting stuff and have some cool numbers about each of the Michigan events.

		Week	N 	Total Score	Avg Score	Top 8 Score	Top 24 Score
MSC		7	102	3927.9		38.5		72.7		59.3
West Michigan	4	40	1105.1		27.6		55.2		36.9
Howell		1	41	1035.8		25.3		47.2		34.1
Waterford	2	42	1057.3		25.2		51.9		35.3
Bedford		6	40	989.8		24.7		57.5		34.0
Livonia		5	40	974.5		24.4		52.7		32.5
Woodhaven	3	40	890.2		22.3		51.2		29.7
Kentwood	2	40	881.6		22.0		43.9		28.4
Traverse City	3	41	867.8		21.2		45.7		28.3
Southfield	1	40	839.5		21.0		47.2		28.2
St Joseph	4	42	844.3		20.1		46.1		27.4
Center Line	5	42	837.7		19.9		38.5		26.9
Kettering	2	41	807.0		19.7		44.1		26.2
Troy		6	40	785.8		19.6		43.5		25.5
Midland		4	42	809.1		19.3		40.1		25.8
Escanaba	5	36	655.6		18.2		32.6		21.8
Standish	1	40	691.8		17.3		33.9		21.6
Gull Lake	3	40	679.8		17.0		33.2		22.1
Lansing		6	41	680.7		16.6		30.4		21.0

All of the "Scores" are predictions of how many "Points" a team should get, using a scoring method very similar to Fantasy FIRST's Scoring method (also similar to the district scoring method) and past competition results. This is meant as more of a prediction of overall team performance and competitiveness than actual district point results. "Top 8 Score" and "Top 24 Score" are the average predicted points for the top 8 or 24 teams. For MSC, this assumes that the top 102 teams make it and that they are just as successful there as at a district event. These are obviously false assumptions for predicting actual scores, but should show the difficulty of MSC pretty accurately. The prediction assumes that not only will teams do as well as they have done in past years, but that they will continue to get better or worse as they have in the past three. Over entire competitions, it should be a pretty accurate reading of competition, but probably not with individual teams.

Here are the predictions for top 8 at each event:

Week 1										
Southfield					Howell						Standish		
33 Killer Bees			77.7		862 Lightning Robotics		66.3		503 Frog Force		48.7
1023 Bedford Express		72.7		1918 NC GEARS			56.0		3602 RoboMos		45.0
548 Robostangs			54.7		107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.	49.2		5193 Pantheon		41.0
573 Mech Warriors		41.2		494 Martians			46.8		1025 IMPIS		31.0
910 The Foley Freeze		37.5		2771 Code Red Robotics 		43.8		1243 Dragons		28.7
3604 Goon Squad			32.3		3322 Eagle Imperium		39.0		5166 Fabricators		26.0
2960 automation nation		31.2		245 Adambots			38.7		5231 Radical Jays	26.0
1701 RoboCubs			30.3		141 WO-BOT			37.5		5247 Red Devils		25.0
										
Week 2										
Waterford					Kentwood					Kettering		
1718 The Fighting Pi		78.8		2054 Tech Vikes			65.5		2337 EngiNERDs		72.0
67 The HOT Team			72.0		4967 That ONE Team 		48.0		314 The Megatron Oracles	61.8
2137 TORC			60.3		2959 Robotarians		47.7		1711 Raptors		49.8
503 Frog Force			48.7		3234 Red Arrows			40.2		70 More Martians		47.7
3656 Dreadbots			39.8		857 Superior Roboworks		39.8		1684 Chimeras		36.3
4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics	39.8		85 B.O.B. (Built on Brains)	37.5		1243 Dragons		28.7
217 ThunderChickens		38.5		2767 Stryke Force		36.8		2604 Metal and Soul	28.5
3098 The Captains		37.0		4956 White Lake Robotics	36.0		3534 House of Cards	27.8
										
Week 3										
Woodhaven					Gull Lake					Traverse City		
27 Team RUSH			75.8		3641 The Flying Toasters	54.2		862 Lightning Robotics	66.3
1023 Bedford Express		72.7		2834 Bionic Black Hawks		46.8		2474 Excel		50.2
469 Las Guerrillas		66.2		3656 Dreadbots			39.8		1711 Raptors		49.8
3539 Byting Bulldogs		54.0		5162 The Big Red Theory		28.0		3618 Petoskey Paladins	44.5
3322 Eagle Imperium		39.0		5248 Robo-Saxons		27.0		51 The Wings of Fire	41.0
280 TnT				36.5		830 The RatPack			24.2		245 Adambots		38.7
123 Team - Cosmos		33.2		1504 Desperate Penguins		23.8		3688 Norsemen		38.0
815 Advanced Power		32.5		3658 Robo - Beavers		21.8		4391 BraveBots		36.8
										
Week 4										
Midland						St. Joseph					West Michigan		
314 The Megatron Oracles	61.8		469 Las Guerrillas		66.2		1718 The Fighting Pi	78.8
3618 Petoskey Paladins		44.5		2474 Excel			50.2		2054 Tech Vikes		65.5
5193 Pantheon			41.0		2959 Robotarians		47.7		2137 TORC		60.3
4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics	39.8		70 More Martians		47.7		1918 NC GEARS		56.0
910 The Foley Freeze		37.5		494 Martians			46.8		107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S	49.2
2619 The Charge			34.2		3688 Norsemen			38.0		4967 That ONE Team	48.0
302 The Dragons			31.2		2767 Stryke Force		36.8		2771 Code Red Robotics	43.8
4988 Yooper Troopers		31.0		3620 Average Joes		35.8		3234 Red Arrows		40.2
										
Week 5										
Center Line					Escanaba					Livonia		
2834 Bionic Black Hawks		46.8		3602 RoboMos			45.0		27 Team RUSH		75.8
68 Truck Town Thunder		46.5		857 Superior Roboworks		39.8		67 The HOT Team		72.0
573 Mech Warriors		41.2		4391 BraveBots			36.8		548 Robostangs		54.7
3098 The Captains		37.0		2586 Copper Bots		31.3		3641 The Flying Toasters	54.2
4384 Benzene Bots		35.8		74 Team C.H.A.O.S.		31.0		503 Frog Force		48.7
2851 Crevolution		35.5		1596 The Instigators		28.7		51 The Wings of Fire	41.0
123 Team - Cosmos		33.2		66 The Flyers			24.8		217 ThunderChickens	38.5
1189 The Gearheads		32.2		1322 GRAYT			23.5		280 TnT			36.5
										
Week 6					
Lansing						Troy						Bedford	
68 Truck Town Thunder		46.5		33 Killer Bees			77.7		1023 Bedford Express	72.7
1684 Chimeras			36.3		2337 EngiNERDs			72.0		862 Lightning Robotics	66.3
308 The Monsters		30.5		3539 Byting Bulldogs		54.0		469 Las Guerrillas	66.2
858 Demons			29.7		4130 The Blue Devils		36.2		2137 TORC		60.3
5084 Password			26.0		5053 Lakers			29.0		548 Robostangs		54.7
3667 Mecanum Knights		25.8		3534 House of Cards		27.8		3641 The Flying Toasters	54.2
4568 Robot Commander		24.8		226 Hammerheads			26.3		2834 Bionic Black Hawks	46.8
5282 Railroaders		24.0		3548 RoboRavens 2		24.8		3322 Eagle Imperium	39.0
										
Week 7, MSC										
1718 The Fighting Pi		78.8		2054 Tech Vikes			65.5		1711 Raptors		49.8
33 Killer Bees			77.7		314 The Megatron Oracles	61.8		107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S	49.2
27 Team RUSH			75.8		2137 TORC			60.3		503 Frog Force		48.7
1023 Bedford Express		72.7		1918 NC GEARS			56.0		4967 That ONE Team	48.0
67 The HOT Team			72.0		548 Robostangs			54.7		70 More Martians		47.7
2337 EngiNERDs			72.0		3641 The Flying Toasters	54.2		2959 Robotarians		47.7
862 Lightning Robotics		66.3		3539 Byting Bulldogs		54.0		494 Martians		46.8
469 Las Guerrillas		66.2		2474 Excel			50.2		2834 Bionic Black Hawks	46.8

This is also attached in spreadsheet form, and I have more detailed spreadsheets for each competition if anyone wants to see them. These numbers are just speculation and a fun way for me to spend AP Computer Science, take them with many grains of salt. Feel free to ask questions.

[Nyxyxylyth]

Originally Posted by Bryce Paputa

Week 6
Troy
469 Las Guerrillas
Bedford
469 Las Guerrillas

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving

[MrRiedemanJACC]

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

[Brandon Ha]

<3 for the info! gonna be so much fun!
Btw how did we already get MSC teams?
edit: Never mind about that Michigan States

[Jaywalker1711]

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

This year, we are doing something a bit different (again). We will see how it goes!
Hint: we're using multiple timing belts again... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQY3FD4p6cA

[Christopher149]

Originally Posted by Jaywalker1711

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

[Jaywalker1711]

Originally Posted by Christopher149

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

That is too bad, we'll miss you guys!

[Hot_Copper_Frog]

Originally Posted by Christopher149

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

I'm happy to see 857 ranked so high I'll be watching your progress this competitions season...hopefully I'll see you at MSC!

[April_robo]

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

[Gabeman6007]

Can't wait to compete with all you guys - good luck!

[RonnieS]

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

[Lunitic2197]

First for Howell and Traverse City, above 469 for Bedford, and top 8 for States? Really? I'll take it =D

[Bryce Paputa]

Originally Posted by April_robo

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

Here they are.

Originally Posted by Ronnie314

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

Dang, I thought I had waited until they were filled. You guys rank first at Lansing.

[Bryce Paputa]

Originally Posted by Nyxyxylyth

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving

Oops? Not sure how that happened. It's fixed now, but were you registered for Troy earlier in the registration season?

Originally Posted by MrRiedemanJACC

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

I have them attached here (Woodhaven is mifla, Howell is mihow). Anyone can feel free to ask for others. The numbers in the brackets show the teams' performance at each competition like [2014a, 2014b], [2013a, 2013b, 2013c], [2012a, 2012b]. The final prediction is then ((1.5 * average of 2014 competitions) + (1 * average of 2013 competitions) + (.5 * average of 2012 competitions)) / 3, which also happens to be equal to (2014 average + average improvement each year from 2012 to 2014).

As a side note, does anyone know why Woodhaven's event code is mifla? Why not something like miwdh, miwhv, miwhn, mibrn, mibrt, or something else related to Woodhaven HS or it's city?

[rstrawsi]

The reason why Woodhaven is mifla is because the mailing address of Woodhaven High School is Flat Rock (it's in our 'backyard'). Pretty confusing as our district actually is Woodhaven and Brownstown...