Odds of a Triple Tortuga in St. Louis

[Joe Johnson]

So... ...we've all had a lot of fun with the Triple Tortuga Contest this season (at least I have had fun).

It's kind of over because I've given away the 5 Triple Tortuga gift cards that I promised and I just don't see a Double Triple Tortuga happening this late in the season -- if it was going to happen, week 1 & week 2 were our best shots I thought.

BUT... ...I've been thinking about the rest of the season -- basically the District Championships and Worlds -- and wondering if we'd see any more Triple Tortugas.

I think that the odds of getting another Triple Tortuga at the District Championships is basically zero, the density of teams that habitually get stuck on defenses is just too low to make getting 3 of them in one match a realistically probable event.

Now the Worlds are another matter. My general view is that the population of robots at the Worlds (especially now with 600 teams attending) are not THAT different than a typical mid-season regional. So... ...I think that it is actually quite possible that we get a Triple Tortuga in St. Louis.

All this is a preamble to a poll. What do you think the odds are that we'll see a Triple Tortuga at the Worlds?

Comments & analysis welcome.

Dr. Joe J.

[GeeTwo]

I think about even money; I polled 50-70%. There seems to be a bit of a sophomore effect here - taking things to the next level produces unusual setbacks.

The 3Ts awarded or given tentative 3T status were:

• Palmetto, wk 0.5
• Waterbury*, wk 1
• Wilsonville, wk 2
• Los Angeles, wk 2
• Bridgewater-Raritan, wk 3
• Silicon Valley, wk 6

* Tentative because one was on the batter divider, not a defense.

Of particular note on the SV 3T in week 6 was that all three of those robots are well-established teams which were selected for elims at SV. They were being outperformed by even better competition when all three robots managed to tortuga (independently, this time); this may be because they were pushing just a little bit harder than in other matches, and went too far. I would not be too surprised if there were a 3T during DCMPs, but I would consider that less than 50% likely.