Upset Percentage

[AndyBare]

Does anyone have a percentage of all elimination matches, within all divisions, and extending onto Einstein, that were upsets (lower seed beating higher seed)? Competitions this year were insane, and from my knowledge, I'd say by far the most unpredictable in FIRST's history (at least since 2011). Can I get some older vet's opinions on this? Also, I'd like to hear opinions on why.

[LDiDomenico]

Originally Posted by AndyBare

Does anyone have a percentage of all elimination matches, within all divisions, and extending onto Einstein, that were upsets (lower seed beating higher seed)? Competitions this year were insane, and from my knowledge, I'd say by far the most unpredictable in FIRST's history (at least since 2011). Can I get some older vet's opinions on this? Also, I'd like to hear opinions on why.

I found it really interesting that Curie was 100% upsets in eliminations this year. It really shows how crucial the 2nd pick is to winning in the elimination rounds and the later seeds do get better picks in the second round.

[AndyBare]

To rephrase, and hopefully garner some more conversation/thoughts, here are the outcomes and calculations.

Each field has 4 Quarterfinal pairings (Q), 2 Semifinal pairings (S) and one Final pairing (F) for a total of 7 pairings.
With 8 division fields and Einstein, we have 9 fields total, with 7 pairings each, for a total of [edit fixed: 63] pairings.

Pairings with upsets:
Archimedes
Alliance 3/2 - S - 1
Carson
Alliance 5/4 - Q - 2
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 3
Alliance 4/1 - S - 4
Alliance 4/3 - F - 5
Carver
Alliance 5/4 - Q - 6
Alliance 6/3 - Q - 7
Alliance 2/1 - F - 8
Curie
Alliance 8/1 - Q - 9
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 10
Alliance 6/3 - Q - 11
Alliance 5/4 - Q - 12
Alliance 8/5 - S - 13
Alliance 7/6 - S - 14
Alliance 8/7 - F - 15
Galileo
Alliance 6/3 - Q - 16
Alliance 6/2 - Q - 17
Hopper
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 18
Newton
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 19
Alliance 7/3 - S - 20
Alliance 7/1 - F - 21
Tesla
Alliance 3/2 - S - 22
Einstein
Alliance 8/1 - Q - 23
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 24
Alliance 6/3 - Q - 25
Alliance 6/4 - S - 26
Alliance 7/6 - F - 27

Above you see that 27 out of those edit [63] pairings were upsets, giving us an upset rating of 42.8%.

So has anyone in FIRST ever seen anything quite this unpredictable before, or was this the most unpredictable Championship you've seen?
Why?

[Whatever]

On Galileo 6 also beat 2 in the semis.

Not counting Einstein - that would 22 upsets out of 56 (7*8) or 39.3%.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by AndyBare

Curie
Alliance 8/1 - Q - 9
Alliance 7/2 - Q - 10
Alliance 6/3 - Q - 11
Alliance 5/4 - Q - 12
Alliance 8/5 - S - 13
Alliance 7/6 - S - 14
Alliance 8/7 - F - 15

I didn't think I would ever see a reverse perfect bracket. That is ridiculous.

[Nate Laverdure]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

I didn't think I would ever see a reverse perfect bracket. That is ridiculous.

There are only 2^7=128 possible elim outcomes. TBA lists 142 events in 2016 alone. It's likely to happen at some frequency.

[Whatever]

Handy table for the odds of a perfect reverse bracket
50% odds of underdog winning-->Once every 128 tournaments
45% --> once every 268 tournaments (roughly 2 years)
40% --> once every 610 tournaments (roughly 4 years)
35% --> once every 1554 tournaments (roughly 10 years)
30% --> once every 4572 tournaments (roughly 30 years)
25% --> once every 16,384 tournaments (roughly 100 years)
20% --> once every 78,125 tournaments (roughly 600 years)

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by AndyBare

Above you see that 26 out of those 36 pairings were upsets, giving us an upset rating of 72%.

Where does the number 36 come from?

[lamiet01]

Looks like a typo. Last I knew, 7*9 was 63, not 36.

[AndyBare]

Originally Posted by lamiet01

Looks like a typo. Last I knew, 7*9 was 63, not 36.

Yep fixed it, thanks! Do you guys think that poor scouting had a part in this? Teams looking at RP instead of accuracy, shots per match, etc.?

[bam-bam]

Originally Posted by AndyBare

Yep fixed it, thanks! Do you guys think that poor scouting had a part in this? Teams looking at RP instead of accuracy, shots per match, etc.?

A quick glance at OPR seems to show a very small spread between each team in the top 15 for Curie. Other divisions show a clear 2-5 robots ahead in OPR from the rest.

I didn't watch Curie, so I'm not sure how things went down. It did seem easier, however, for the lower seeds to scoop up some high goal scorers/scalers in the later picks. I'm going under the assumption that the top half or so were strong enough that no one stood out more than another, so the #5-6 pick would be able to match the output of a #1 pick, #8 captain was strong enough to pick robots to match the output of #1 alliance, etc.

[Jeanne Boyarsky]

Originally Posted by bam-bam

I didn't watch Curie, so I'm not sure how things went down. It did seem easier, however, for the lower seeds to scoop up some high goal scorers/scalers in the later picks. I'm going under the assumption that the top half or so were strong enough that no one stood out more than another, so the #5-6 pick would be able to match the output of a #1 pick, #8 captain was strong enough to pick robots to match the output of #1 alliance, etc.

Another interesting thing about Curie is that only one of the top 8 picked another in the top 8 as their pick (and the offer was declined.) I'm not a scout and don't pay attention to that so I asked a scout yesterday. He said he though it was because many of the top seeds were low goal scorers so didn't want to pick another low goal scorer.

(I'm a mentor on the #8 team on Curie)

[AndyBare]

Originally Posted by Jeanne Boyarsky

Another interesting thing about Curie is that only one of the top 8 picked another in the top 8 as their pick (and the offer was declined.) I'm not a scout and don't pay attention to that so I asked a scout yesterday. He said he though it was because many of the top seeds were low goal scorers so didn't want to pick another low goal scorer.

(I'm a mentor on the #8 team on Curie)

Jeanne, I watched the online streams from home, and I came to the same conclusion. I think the fact that an alliance that won a match but didn't capture or breach would gain 2 rp, and alliances that lost, but breached and captured would also gain 2 rp, skewed rankings quite a bit. Some top 8 teams, I think probably, had (possibly) bad scouting because they weren't prepared to be where they ended up, and some lower ranks, I'm certain, were pushed out of higher ranked positions. That being said, I think Curie had some really good scouting teams out there. I mean the perfect reverse bracket speaks for itself. Incredible.

[Edit] That being said, will FIRST introduce so many possibilities for ranking points next year? Maybe not. I certainly hope not. I remember in 2012 coopertition points were a boost to the good and the bold. 2012 IMO was a very good example of how dual ranking points could highlight really above average teams. This year however, instead of being a boost, it was a possible equalizer. I think it probably looked good in theory / on paper, but not in the actual season.
Heck, I wouldn't care if we went back to seeds being fully reliant on W/L/T. Good scouting will bring out the best.

[OccamzRazor]

The fact that Curie division had a 100% upset in the bracket proves that the scouting data those teams had were beyond poor. Besides the fact we knew the number one seed was unlikely to win because they were not a high goal shooter, it should have been much easier to make stronger alliances by checking for high goal consistency.

Our data which I think we can release soon will show that 3339 with a range of (2-9) and 836 with a range of (4-7) were the two best high goal shooters by our own judgement in the division and that nobody else caught it. They were both second picks which I find ridiculous considering the number of shots they made and with such consistency. Honorably mentions to 166 (1-7) and 3641(0-8) who are also really good high goal robots. What it came down to was how the robots were designed and if a defender could stop them, where they shot from, did they score 0s, etc.

It would have been terrifying if 876 and 3339 were on the same alliance and that almost happened!

[AndyBare]

Originally Posted by OccamzRazor

The fact that Curie division had a 100% upset in the bracket proves that the scouting data those teams had were beyond poor. Besides the fact we knew the number one seed was unlikely to win because they were not a high goal shooter, it should have been much easier to make stronger alliances by checking for high goal consistency.

It would have been terrifying if 876 and 3339 were on the same alliance and that almost happened!

Oh, I definitely agree! After watching, I can't say I was thrilled to watch my first 100% upset bracket. It's cool to see an underdog or two in competition, but my main point was that at this magnitude, all the upsets were maybe the deal-breaker for me. Took Stronghold from "a really good game" to a "really good game to an extent" in my mind. Maybe that makes me a poor sport? Maybe not.