Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds

[Joe Johnson]

There is a lot of talk about High Efficiency Goal Shooting that is, well, kinda crazy if you ask me.

There are a lot of threads discussing this or that aspect of H.E.G shooting (e.g. Realistic high goal scoring rate). The general tone seems to imply that air above a STEAMWORKS Field is going to be thick with fuel on its way to clogging the counter mechanisms in the boilers.

On a more sobering note, I have published Dr. Joe's 3 "Don't Bother Unless..." Rules For High Efficiency Goal Shooting which includes this prediction:

"High Efficiency Goal Shooting is going to be a boneyard of time suck for so so many teams."

On this issue at least I seem to be at odds with the CD community.

To try to gain allignment, I propose the following thought experiment:

Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal (note I prefer ball count not Kpa as it makes explicit how many balls we are talking about). Consider the population of these median numbers.

1. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I am really interested in what people think these numbers will be. I have a guess but from what I can infer, my guesses are much lower than the general CD population.

I am very serious. I ask all CD to provide your best guess as to these 4 numbers.

Cheers,
Dr. Joe J.

[Gdeaver]

I predict that there will be many pop corn machines. We all envision that stream of balls flowing into the hopper. It will be a very elusive sight. How many teams will surpass 50% efficiency?

[mrnoble]

1. 1 out of _5__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of _20__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of _100__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of __infinity_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[wilsonmw04]

1. 1 out of _10__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of _30__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of _400__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of __infinity_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[EricLeifermann]

I think this game is going to be much different in quals than elims. Last year was pretty much the same game in both quals and elims.

I don't see teams just pelting the boiler with fuel after they achieve the 40 KPA to get the RP. But I do see alliances putting as much fuel as possible into the boiler during the whole match in elims. As the fuel is the differentiator of the alliances.

I'm not even going to put numbers to your question because I don't see them relevant to a successful qualification match robot. Though I am interested in what the mob has to say about the matter.

[Joe Johnson]

Oh yeah. Here are my guesses:

1. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 50 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

ALSO.. ...I feel a gift card competition coming on.

IF some clever FIRST stats person can figure out a way to get a reasonably good estimate of this number from the publicly available numbers that FIRST publishes then I will provide a $20 gift card to the person who guesses the best*

Any takers.

Dr. Joe J.

Details:

• One Guess Per CD username.
• All entries are to this thread must be made prior to your local "Stop Build" Time.
• Editing your post invalidates the entry.
• Updated guesses are allowed but invalidate all prior entries for that person.

*lowest Sqrt(sum(error^2)) using data from both Worlds this year

[WesleyK]

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 118 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 330 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 1678 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[hionwind]

Originally Posted by WesleyK

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 118 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 330 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 1678 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Seems to be some west coast bias here.

[Joe Johnson]

I am curious as to how folks can have a Median/Max where the first number is larger than the second number.

If for example you have an answer of the form:

1 out of A/B teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >N

It seems to me that A < B.

To say otherwise says that there will be more teams with a 50th percentile H.E.G. ball count above N than there are teams who's 100th percentile H.E.G. ball count above N.

Said another way, how can there be more teams with their middle score over N than had their best score over N.

Have I mistated the question somehow that is confusing people?

Dr. Joe J.

[crazybobcat]

On the contrary, wouldnt A need to be greater than B? Since they are both ratios, and 1/4 < 1/2. It seemed like everyone did it correctly.
With that stated, here are my guesses
1 out of _4/2_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _10/5_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _75/20_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _infinity/100_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by crazybobcat

On the contrary, wouldnt A need to be greater than B? Since they are both ratios, and 1/4 < 1/2. It seemed like everyone did it correctly.
With that stated, here are my guesses
1 out of _4/2_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _10/5_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _75/20_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _infinity/100_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Yes! of course, I hadn't actually gone through the exercise of thinking about picking numbers or I would have realized that.

My brain had somehow flipped from N teams per group size of M rather than 1 team in N. It is a miles per gallon vs gallons per mile problem. I get it.

I knew I must be off my nut because a lot of smart people and lower second numbers.

Thanks for squaring me up.

Dr. Joe J.

[TJP123]

1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _80__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _the world_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[TJP123]

Originally Posted by TJP123

1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _80__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _the world_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Does it count as an edit if I change to this:
1 out of _503__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by TJP123

Does it count as an edit if I change to this:
1 out of _503__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200

I'll allow it. Consider your priority date intact and your guess as 503.

Dr. Joe J.

[Joe Johnson]

Two things.

First, no clever stats person has stepped up to say they will make an "OPR-type" statistical estimator of median High Efficiency Goal ball count so... ...another $20 gift card prize that will never be claimed

Second, how would people change their answer if instead of MEDIAN H.E.G. ball count the question asked to predict MAX H.E.G. ball count? Specifically, how would you fill in the following 8 blanks:

1. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Your thoughts are welcome.

Dr. Joe J.