Statistically Winning Strategy

[BrianR]

I spent a bit of time this afternoon looking at match results, and decided to have a little fun with Excel to see if I could tease anything out of the data. What I found surprised me, and I thought it would be good to share with everyone else.

What I found was that the number of teams that scored over 30 points and lost was very low. In fact, 98.515% of all losing teams had fewer than 30 points. This would seem to indicate that anyone who can score over 30 points (a 12" ramp) every match, without penalties, should be well on their way to finals, if not one of the top seeds, WITHOUT EVER SCORING A SINGLE TUBE.

The different regionals did produce some varied data, notably VCU where 99.898% of losing teams had less than 30 points, and St Louis where 99.92% of losing teams had less than 30 points, and on the opposite end, Pacific Northwest, where 92.53% of losing teams had less than 30 points. Regardless, out of ten or eleven matches, this means you would win ALL BUT ONE. That is a very impressive record, and will easily earn a spot in the finals.

I wouldn't advocate jumping up on a ramp right at the start of the match and saying "This is a statistically sound strategy", because you would give your opponents free reign to fill the rack. But I would say that getting up a ramp should be a priority, and I personally am planning on taking a full 30 seconds for this so that I make sure we have enough time to pick up these essential points.

What does everyone think about this?


Oh yeah, this data constitutes 270 qualification matches, and none of the finals matches, as those are clearly a different caliber, and need to treated as a seperate type of match so as to prevent skewing the data. I have attached my Excel spreadsheet if you want to look through it.

[David Brinza]

It is our belief that if you build a good rampbot, your alliance partners will surely come on board for "easy" points.

I also think that over the next few weeks, ringers will be hung more effectively and later into the match. Last second "landings" will become more frequent. I suspect that spoilers will even come into play. But, in the end, there's nothing like having a good ramp to roost upon after a tough match!

[Wayne C.]

Originally Posted by David Brinza

It is our belief that if you build a good rampbot, your alliance partners will surely come on board for "easy" points.

Agreed- but define good.

My definition-
1. sturdy
2. wide enough to allow a sloppy fast entrance
3. durable enough to stay retracted in regular play and not accidentally deploy in mid field
4. well trained team who knows when to deploy and when not to

Observation- if your team is putting up the 7th or 8th in a ring a ramp bot deflecting a spoiler beats the 60 points

WC

[Daniel_LaFleur]

Originally Posted by Wayne C.

Agreed- but define good.

My definition-
1. sturdy
2. wide enough to allow a sloppy fast entrance
3. durable enough to stay retracted in regular play and not accidentally deploy in mid field
4. well trained team who knows when to deploy and when not to

Observation- if your team is putting up the 7th or 8th in a ring a ramp bot deflecting a spoiler beats the 60 points

WC

Agreed.

I would also add that rampbots have to be able to play some tough defense (and that makes your point #3 even more important).

Rampbots also cannot (usually) win by themselves. They are an alliance 'bot and require their alliance partners to be able to score on the rack and climb the ramp (not easy considering some of the ramp angles out there).

[Wayne Doenges]

I dunno. Week 1 has historically been the weakest in terms of scoring. Week 2, teams find their playing style, hit their stride, and find out what the refs are going to call and not call, and then it gets better from there. Could you redo this after Week 2? I can think of at least one regional where there will be at least 4 top rack scorers, quite probably more. Call me skeptical, but it'll probably be Week 3 before things settle down to what it's actually be like.

This might be true if all the teams from all the 1st regionals went to all the other regionals. And it will be true at the Championship,
We are only going to the Boilermaker (that's all we can afford). I'll bet you that allot of the other teams, at Boilermaker, will be their first one also (not proper english, bu hey it's early).
I think lift bots will still be a big factor.
My team (1501) do NOT have ramps, we have wings, and if you can climb 2.25" than we will lift you with ease.

[ALIBI]

I was surprised at the number of teams that did not design to climb ramps. There are what appear to be several good liftobot designs that have not yet competed (i.e. 1501) that may make getting bonus points easier. The team I mentor desiged a robot that could climb last years ramp (aprox. 30 degrees) and deploy a ramp(s) with an angle of about 22 degrees. Ramp(s) is something special that will be reveiled at Boilermaker that I have not seen anywhere yet. To win in the end you will need the bonus points by either being able to get on a ramp/liftobot or be a ramp/liftobot that is user friendly. And, as the weeks progress more and more ringers will be scored making way for the spoilers and even more of a last ditch run for the ramp/liftobot bouns points.

[Ellery]

From the few matches I watched via webcast I agree with Alibi's summary that alot of teams didn't take into account the steep angles it needs to climb and the clearance needed. Also alot of traction issues were seen as well. But I still believe tha rampbots will definitely remain a big player as Wayne C pointed out.

[dtengineering]

Originally Posted by Daniel_LaFleur

Agreed.

I would also add that rampbots have to be able to play some tough defense (and that makes your point #3 even more important).

Rampbots need to be careful when playing tough D. At least once at PNW I saw team 488 (one of the great rampbots at the tournament) get caught downfield. They had gone to the other side of the rack and played great D... but when it came time to go home and deploy their ramps the tables were turned. It was a great strategy by their opponents, and one that... done wisely... will limit the defense abilities of a ramp bot.

Another strategy to mess up the ramp bots included knocking the ringers all over the home zone, so that when the ramps came down they landed on tubes, forcing the bots to take time to clean them out. As entropy would suggest it was easier to make a mess of the home zone than clean it.

As for the robots that deployed early, I saw at least one case where once the ramp bot had committed to deploying at a particular location, one of the opposing team members just rolled down and played D in front of them.

The best play, however... perhaps one of the most exciting moments I've seen in FIRST... came in the final match when one robot was tipped while attempting to climb the ramp.... the robot lay there, helpless.... and victory seemed assured for the other alliance.... then slowly the arm deployed and the tipped robot lifted itself back up and climbed onto the rampbot and was elevated as the buzzer sounded for a 30 point bonus... and a regional championship.

Does anyone have any video of the final match at PNW?? The crowd was almost as loud as it is at the GTR, I think.

Jason

[Fred Sayre]

Originally Posted by dtengineering

Rampbots need to be careful when playing tough D. At least once at PNW I saw team 488 (one of the great rampbots at the tournament) get caught downfield. They had gone to the other side of the rack and played great D... but when it came time to go home and deploy their ramps the tables were turned. It was a great strategy by their opponents, and one that... done wisely... will limit the defense abilities of a ramp bot.

Another strategy to mess up the ramp bots included knocking the ringers all over the home zone, so that when the ramps came down they landed on tubes, forcing the bots to take time to clean them out. As entropy would suggest it was easier to make a mess of the home zone than clean it.

As for the robots that deployed early, I saw at least one case where once the ramp bot had committed to deploying at a particular location, one of the opposing team members just rolled down and played D in front of them.

The best play, however... perhaps one of the most exciting moments I've seen in FIRST... came in the final match when one robot was tipped while attempting to climb the ramp.... the robot lay there, helpless.... and victory seemed assured for the other alliance.... then slowly the arm deployed and the tipped robot lifted itself back up and climbed onto the rampbot and was elevated as the buzzer sounded for a 30 point bonus... and a regional championship.

Does anyone have any video of the final match at PNW?? The crowd was almost as loud as it is at the GTR, I think.

Jason

We recorded the raw footage from the whole competition, so I believe we should have all of the matches. We are slowly getting organized to cut it up and format the video. We will post links here, or at least let interested people know when we have them ready.

[Dave McLaughlin]

I complete agree with the need for ramps for a winning alliance. At PNW a ramp, or winged robot was a nessity to secure a win. There were many matches where neither sides had a lifting bot and in this case scoring became important. I was one match in which two bots on the same side were lifted for 60 point, and in the final second an opposing bot completed a row of 7 for 128 points. Getting up to early and leving the rack open is killer, but not getting up is also a problem

-Dave McLaughlin 1983, Driver

[ALIBI]

This link will lead you to a slightly different ramp than you have probably seen anywhere else. Other than having to climb a 22-23 degree ramp (less than last years 30 degree ramp), most of the defensive strategies used against ramps can be overcome. Take A Look! Unless you can push a wedge, this one should stay in place and how could you defend #### of ramps?


http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...threadid=55336

[Gene F]

Remember that a ramp is only good if the alliance partners can get on it. At VCU I saw a lot of fancy wheels that had great difficulty with ramps! As this plays out will we see teams switching back to the more traditional style wheels?

[kortlan]

depending only on ramps is not a very reliable sorce. at the st. louis regional. there was only a small portion of robots that were actually able to ramp out of the amount that tried to. and if you leave 2 ok tube scoring robots from the opposing alliance open with 30-45 seconds left. they can put up 3-5 tubes which can be very deadly.

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by dtengineering

The best play, however... perhaps one of the most exciting moments I've seen in FIRST... came in the final match when one robot was tipped while attempting to climb the ramp.... the robot lay there, helpless.... and victory seemed assured for the other alliance.... then slowly the arm deployed and the tipped robot lifted itself back up and climbed onto the rampbot and was elevated as the buzzer sounded for a 30 point bonus... and a regional championship.

Does anyone have any video of the final match at PNW?? The crowd was almost as loud as it is at the GTR, I think.

Jason

Yeah, I gotta see that!

[Daniel_LaFleur]

Originally Posted by dtengineering

Rampbots need to be careful when playing tough D. At least once at PNW I saw team 488 (one of the great rampbots at the tournament) get caught downfield. They had gone to the other side of the rack and played great D... but when it came time to go home and deploy their ramps the tables were turned. It was a great strategy by their opponents, and one that... done wisely... will limit the defense abilities of a ramp bot.

This happened to us at GSR. Team 40 blocked us from returning to our home zone (excellent job, too). Rampbots have to watch the clock and ensure they have an 'escape route' back to the home zone.

Originally Posted by dtengineering

Another strategy to mess up the ramp bots included knocking the ringers all over the home zone, so that when the ramps came down they landed on tubes, forcing the bots to take time to clean them out. As entropy would suggest it was easier to make a mess of the home zone than clean it.

Timing is everything for the rampbots. We found it took us about 5-7 seconds to clear a section for the ramp. We made a point to clear each and everytime we went back to the home zone (after our 1st match where we deployed on a tube and Buzz had to clear it for us. That cost us the second robot up).

Originally Posted by dtengineering

As for the robots that deployed early, I saw at least one case where once the ramp bot had committed to deploying at a particular location, one of the opposing team members just rolled down and played D in front of them.

I'm surprised that more teams dont do that, especially against the forward (field facing) ramps, since you could defend and still stay outside the homezone. Our ramp faces sidewards which helps keep the defenders away but also requires teams to turn and line up before ramping.

Originally Posted by dtengineering

The best play, however... perhaps one of the most exciting moments I've seen in FIRST... came in the final match when one robot was tipped while attempting to climb the ramp.... the robot lay there, helpless.... and victory seemed assured for the other alliance.... then slowly the arm deployed and the tipped robot lifted itself back up and climbed onto the rampbot and was elevated as the buzzer sounded for a 30 point bonus... and a regional championship.

Does anyone have any video of the final match at PNW?? The crowd was almost as loud as it is at the GTR, I think.

Jason

I'd be very interested in seeing this video as well. This sounds like an awsome match.