The Downside of Having More Engineers

[RobertG]

It seems that a large goal of FIRST is to increase the supply of engineers; however, few people seem to realize the basic economic principle that an increase in the supply of labor without an increase in the demand for labor will lead to lower wages. While a few more engineers will be employed, they will be making less money. Young mentors are, in effect, training their future competition.

How then, do we increase demand? Firstly, I believe, that as in healthcare, a greater supply of engineers will increase the demand for engineers since the new technologies they create lead to more employment. This may slightly mitigate the wage decrease. Secondly, many participants of FIRST do not go on to STEM fields, but they will probably have a more positive view of these fields and will likely hire more engineers in their future jobs.

In any case, a greater supply or demand of engineers will benefit this country. Has anyone else thought about this? While most people do not pick their profession based on the money, this still seems like an important topic we should discuss, and is an unintended negative consequence of robotics programs.

Please note that my knowledge of economics only covers the first few months of my high school economics class, so please comment if you have an economics background.

[delsaner]

The subject of the high supply FIRST creates has crossed my mind once before. I am aware that a primary goal of FIRST is to introduce kids/teenagers into engineering, but I sure that at some point the supply will be too high for the demand. I am just a junior in high school, so I am not sure how high the demand is for engineers. With the increasing amount of engineers, significant studies will come quicker than expected, which will really benefit society; that is a plus to having a lot of engineers. Also, think about how big engineering is compared to other studies. Engineering is not a very popular among high-school, so it will be a LONG time before the supply reaches the rate of demand.

That is just my view on the subject.

[Alexis Howell]

Well, the issues is more likely having innovative and self sufficient engineers. The problem seems to be not so much having a demand (so many jobs are outsourced to places like india anyways where people who are college educated and perfectly competent work for as little as 30 thousand a year) because, especially as interest in renewable energy and the like grows, there will always be a need for engineers. Good engineers.

[JesseK]

The principle issue that Dean Kamen points out is that we're training the future engineers that will be in competition with foreign competitors more than with domestic engineers. The U.S.'s society already is has a rift between science and "jobs that do not create wealth (such as sports, pop culture, and finance)**, which is causing us to lose jobs (both technical and nontechnical) on the international stage. He also suggests that there will almost never be a shortfall for demand for engineering because there will always be world problems to solve.

Another way to look at the problem is that right now, today, a future engineer's job is in danger of being outsourced due to increasing engineering availability in other countries. Whether we like it or not, we're already in competition. We're simply gaining more support to keep the jobs from being given to international competitors.

I for one am not worried about training my competitors through FIRST, not one bit.

**It's up for argument whether or not these jobs do or do not create wealth, and to what extent. No matter how much we argue against it, society NEEDS entertainment and a way to finance future endeavors. Such may be seen as creating wealth indirectly. That there is MORE interest in those types of INDIRECT endeavors instead of more interest in jobs that create wealth is the issue that Dean has. He believes (as do I, and many others) that our current direction will lead to deterioration of the U.S. economy since foreign nations are focusing on competing with us in those areas (science, engineering, tech, math, etc) and can simply go to less expensive countries for financing, create their own entertainment, and they can live without major national sports.

[indieFan]

At this point, the US is only turning out something like 10,000 engineers a year from college. That is a very small percent of what the demand is given that the baby boomers are all retiring within the next 5 years, if they haven't already done so.

A good comparison is the teaching situation in Los Angeles. It has been projected that the LAUSD will have a need for 20,000 teachers in the next 5 years due to retirements and people quitting.

indieFan

[gwilliam]

The rest of the world is supplying many of the engineers who do work for US companies, either through outsourcing (work done for American companies in other countries, both manufacturing and engineering), H1B visas (issued to foreign-educated engineers with "special skills" supposedly unavailable in the US, usually because the offered salary is far below US market salaries) and all the students who come to American graduate schools from other countries. American-born students often aren't interested in science or engineering, or aren't interested in working hard to succeed in the classes. So half of the places in the graduate school classes go to ambitious, intelligent, hardworking students who just happen to have been born and gone to college in another country.

The demand is there -- it is being filled by engineers from all over the world. America is still the land of opportunity -- our students need to answer the knock.

[IKE]

I think that as the globabl economy gets more defined, you will see a back-shift of the outsourcing. Outsourcing is done as a cost cutting measure, that comes with the head-ache of being slightly disconnected (both time and physical space). Countries wher pay is low benefit from this and thus absorb higher paying positions. Over time their economies grow, and it is no longer as cheap to use them and thus outsourcing moves on to a different country. (This is a really neat mechanism where the outsourced employee you train finds a higher paying job, thus to keep them you must increase pay...) This cycle will continue until eventually it makes the most sense to have persons in-house.

[dtengineering]

Just because you study engineering at university doesn't mean that you need to work as a P.Eng.

Engineering is a fabulous background for many careers.

Jason

[Jon Jack]

My dentist also has a civil engineering degree, with a PE.

On a different note,

Outsourcing definitely has a cost associated with it. The company I work for has started moving a lot of our overseas manufacturing back to the United States. Typically you'd think we'd be spending more, but in reality we're actually saving money. Here's an article about it.

In short, there is a hidden cost in doing business overseas. While the cost on paper might be less, you have to think about the number of defective parts you're receiving from the manufacturer and how that effects your ability to move products out the door.

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by RobertG

however, few people seem to realize the basic economic principle that an increase in the supply of labor without an increase in the demand for labor will lead to lower wages. While a few more engineers will be employed, they will be making less money.

Well, I have an engineering background; I'm not an economist but I understand the concepts.

On the surface, your argument is absolutely correct - supply and demand do interact in the workforce, just as in trade in goods and services. This is a basic economic principle.

However, the supply of engineers in the USA is far less than the demand, even if we limit engineers to engineering jobs. So there goes that argument. In fact, the IEEE is hosting a summit later this year in Munich to discuss this issue precisely (how do we educate more engineers?). Reports from New Zealand, USA, and the United Kingdom all show a significant demand above supply, while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the growth rate for engineering jobs is about average, but the prospects for employment are good.

So, while I agree with your premise, additional research shows that our best economic forecasters believe that demand will increase faster than supply.


OK, moving in a different direction: The general elements of an engineering education - advanced math, the scientific method, data analysis and error, project management, etc - turn out to be quite valuable in their own right. My opinion is that more than 50% of all engineers are not doing engineering in the strict sense, but are using their skills to benefit other segments of the business world. For example, I'm an electrical engineer, yet today I develop training courses as an instructional designer. My EE background helps me considerably in this task, since I need to understand the systems I'm trying to explain to mostly non-technical people. Oh, and I am extremely happy and satisfied with my work - it took me 20 years to discover what I love to do, and another 5 to get a job doing it.


So, if you're thinking of an engineering degree, get one and you'll likely never go hungry.

[Chris Hibner]

Originally Posted by Don Rotolo

OK, moving in a different direction: The general elements of an engineering education - advanced math, the scientific method, data analysis and error, project management, etc - turn out to be quite valuable in their own right. My opinion is that more than 50% of all engineers are not doing engineering in the strict sense, but are using their skills to benefit other segments of the business world. For example, I'm an electrical engineer, yet today I develop training courses as an instructional designer. My EE background helps me considerably in this task, since I need to understand the systems I'm trying to explain to mostly non-technical people. Oh, and I am extremely happy and satisfied with my work - it took me 20 years to discover what I love to do, and another 5 to get a job doing it.


So, if you're thinking of an engineering degree, get one and you'll likely never go hungry.

I just want to provide a real life example of what Don says - especially the bold part.

I have a BS and MS in mechanical engineering. I did that for 10 years and decided it would be fun to turn my hobby into my job. I quit engineering in May of 2006 for a career as an airline pilot. I did that at one company for about 2.5 years, then switched to a different company for 1 year. Due to various factors, the company that I was working for decided to park 23 airplanes which results in about 230 pilots being furloughed. Since I was in the bottom 230 on the pilot seniority list, I was furloughed November 1st of 2009. Thanks to my engineering degrees, I began working again as an engineer December 1st of 2009. Not too bad to be out of work for only one month given the state of the economy and the unemployment rates.

Due to the union contracts in the pilot world, the company is required to recall pilots on furlough before they can hire anyone new off the street. So when times get better, I'll be given the choice to go back to flying. Will I do it? I don't know yet, but it sure is nice having a great paying engineering job while most of my fellow pilots of furlough are collecting unemployment while looking for jobs that pay barely better than minimum wage. My engineering degrees are paying off big time.

[Kims Robot]

A great topic to stir up thought, and some great responses... a lot of thought in all of them

A few things come to mind... while overall engineering is a great career and supply/demand is favorable, I have seen instances where there is oversupply. Granted its location-based... but ask any aeronautical or mechanical engineering student that graduated in the northeast in 2002 or this year... jobs are NOT just falling at their feet. They may have to locate away from their families, away from home, even across the country to get a job in the US as an engineer. While most Aero's I knew when I graduated (2002), ended up with jobs, I would say 99% of them were as mechanical engineers, not the profession they chose exactly. I also know that more often than other years, the year I graduated and last year/this year there were a lot more college students that didnt have job offers before they graduated. Its already a little of a tough field.

Now if you are willing to think outside the box and not necessarily "be who you intended to be" there are a lot more engineering jobs than you might imagine. Honestly, I never really knew "systems engineer" was a title until I was graduated and got offered a job as one. I still apply all my engineering skills, and a lot of systems engineers have an electrical background, but I didnt get a job as "an electrical engineer".

While I see a lot of the shortages of supply most years (it was a pain when I was recruiting and offer after offer for the "good college engineers" got turned down), we do have to be careful that it follows the economy, and to understand and set expectations appropriately. Good college and good grades are still huge factors in getting a job right out of college.

All this said, I dont think we will see supply exceed demand any time soon, with the retiring generations, and the still slow growth of STEM interest, I dont think having a program like FIRST encouraging kids is going to overfill our bucket for quite some time.

And as Jason points out, just because you have an engineering degree doesnt mean you HAVE to be an engineer

[RobertG]

It sounds like there might be such high demand for engineers that the supply curve for engineers is nearly vertical. This means that higher wages do not attract more applicants than lower wages. If this is the case then a small increase in supply (right shift of the supply curve) will not decrease wages. Is this portrayal of the engineering industry accurate?

[Rick TYler]

Originally Posted by Jon Jack

In short, there is a hidden cost in doing business overseas. While the cost on paper might be less, you have to think about the number of defective parts you're receiving from the manufacturer and how that effects your ability to move products out the door.

*cough* Boeing 787 *cough*

[Steve W]

Originally Posted by Jon Jack

My dentist also has a civil engineering degree, with a PE.

That would be great experience. He can build bridges, make a dam, drill and and do proper surveys. What more could be asked for.