FRCTop25.com Week 2 *Results Broadcasted LIVE Tonight!*

[Nathan Streeter]

I'm really looking forward to the new rankings - should be exciting!

[BrendanB]

Yay, now I can get educated on all the amazing teams I didn't think of when voting! Bring a pad a pen kids!

[mwtidd]

These are a few teams from my top 25 with scores according to my new algorithm.

Next revision coming next week to separate robots and minibots in calculating the contribution. Should give a reading which is better. I'm happy with this one though...

the top 5 are truly in a league of their own.

My Estimated Team's Contribution



vs OPR?

Team OPR
1114 62.9768
111 58.752
33 56.7075
148 56.5229
987 55.1992
217 54.4144
2056 52.7503
2512 49.8532
254 49.1796
1676 46.3775
2016 45.5644
1218 45.5229
876 44.9698
573 43.6522
359 43.5552
1126 43.2325
3284 41.255
179 40.8756
40 40.6288

lets see who wins week 2!
*note: my apologies to SD and Lake Superior (your events are the only 2 so far that didn't tweet so I don't have your data...)

[JB987]

Originally Posted by lineskier

These are a few teams from my top 25 with scores according to my new algorithm.

Next revision coming next week to separate robots and minibots in calculating the contribution. Should give a reading which is better. I'm happy with this one though...

the top 5 are truly in a league of their own.

My Estimated Team's Contribution



vs OPR?


lets see who wins week 2!
*note: my apologies to SD and Lake Superior (your events are the only 2 so far that didn't tweet so I don't have your data...)

I would love to see your algorithm

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by lineskier

These are a few teams from my top 25 with scores according to my new algorithm.

Next revision coming next week to separate robots and minibots in calculating the contribution. Should give a reading which is better. I'm happy with this one though...

Out of curiosity, what is your new algorithm - I'm always intrigued by new algorithms for FRC statistics! :-)

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

Out of curiosity, what is your new algorithm - I'm always intrigued by new algorithms for FRC statistics! :-)

It appears to be OPR-DPR (or SAA as Bongle calls it)

While OPR is relatively okay at predicting robot goodness, DPR is generally pretty bad at predicting a robot's defense capabilities. (especially in a game like this, how often does 1114 actually play defense?)

Nevermind, that appears to have been a happy coincidence for the test cases I tried. I'm curious too, what is it?

DPR is typically a good indicator of schedule difficulty though.

[EDIT for more clarification]DPR tries to extrapolate how many points an opposing alliance scored when your robot was on the field. Typically, your robot doesn't much factor into that, especially in a mostly defense free game like this. If a team has low DPR, they could be a great defender, but the chances are much better that they just got an easy schedule with opponents who didn't put up many points. Even if you play great defense on a top tier team, they'll still score a lot.[/EDIT]

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

It appears to be OPR-DPR (or SAA as Bongle calls it).

While OPR is relatively okay at predicting robot goodness, DPR is generally pretty bad at predicting a robot's defense capabilities. (especially in a game like this, how often does 1114 actually play defense?)

DPR is typically a good indicator of schedule difficulty though.

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

Out of curiosity, what is your new algorithm - I'm always intrigued by new algorithms for FRC statistics! :-)

Actually its neither.
Its what I call an ETC - Estimated Team's Contribution
As a qualifying match gets added to my DB I add the alliance's points to a running sum for a given team. Leaving each team with a TAQMP (total alliance qualifying match points), then divide by the # of matches played and you get ATAQMP(average TAQMP)
then based on AT* go through all of the matches again, comparing the 3 teams AT*s on an alliance, and figure out the % of that matches points attributed to a given team ETQMC (estimated teams qualifying match contribution)

add up all the ETQMCs for a given robot and divide by the number of matches and you are left with ETC (Estimate Team's Contribution) on a per match basis.

what OPR lacks is a match by match analysis, it more looks that big picture and misses some of the details. Also next week i will be separating the total score into (autonomous & teleop) and the (minibot). This should reduce the point inflation and get an even more accurate ETC

so next week I'll have an EMC (estimated minibot contribution), ERC (estimated robot contribution), and an improved ETC

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by lineskier

Actually its neither. As a qualifying match gets added to my DB I add the alliance's points to a running sum for a given team. Leaving each team with a TAQMP (total alliance qualifying match points), then divide by the # of matches played and you get ATAQMP(average TAQMP)
then based on AT* go through all of the matches again, comparing the 3 teams AT*s on an alliance, and figure out the % of that matches points attributed to a given team ETQMC (estimated teams qualifying match contribution)

add up all the ETQMCs for a given robot and divide by the number of matches and you are left with ETC (Estimate Team's Contribution) on a per match basis.

what OPR lacks is a match by match analysis, it more looks that big picture and misses some of the details. Also next week i will be separating the total score into (autonomous & teleop) and the (minibot). This should reduce the point inflation and get an even more accurate ETC

So is the % for a given team/match that team's TAQMP/(sum of alliance's TAQMP?)? It'll definitely be neat to see it without the minibot. And by this algorithm, all teams will have a positive lineskier ranking?

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

So is the % for a given team/match that team's TAQMP/(sum of alliance's TAQMP?)? It'll definitely be neat to see it without the minibot. And by this algorithm, all teams will have a positive lineskier ranking?

its done by AT*, as different teams play different # of matches you have to take an average.

so lets say for the red alliance

r1c = AT* for red1

r1c/(r1c + r2c + r3c) = r1%c to match n
r1%c * redScore = r1mc (red1's match contribution)

also a teams AT* is calculated on a per event basis. So if you go to a second regional your teams match contribution is based on your performance at that regional

However your ETC is the average ETQMC over all matches at all regionals

There is no way to have a negative as points against are not factored. that being said, Just as I can calculate MC and RC I am about one days worth of coding away from a DC (defensive contribution). My hope was to present a madden-like scale for each team. So before a match you could plug in the 6 teams and see what you are in for (based on the #s rather than based on teams claims)

also I wanted to add an alliance selection app, that estimates a teams contribution to your alliance. For example if you have 2 minibots better than the 3rd then their MC would be dropped from their value. I think this would come in handy in picking out teams your may over look for your 2nd pick. Obviously you would want to check it against your scouting sheets...

[Mike Starke]

We're going live in about 15 minutes! Come join us!!!!
http://www.livestream.com/mikeandjustinitm

[JB987]

Did you run the numbers for San Diego?

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by JB987

Did you run the numbers for San Diego?

Unfortunately SD was one of the two regionals that didn't post to the twitter feed. Supporting SD and Lake Superior would force me to parse the first site, and break the algorithms I plan on implementing later. Unfortunately when it came down to priorities, I have selected to abandon non tweeted events for now.

Great job with your video player though, I enjoyed watching the videos.

[JB987]

Originally Posted by lineskier

Unfortunately SD was one of the two regionals that didn't post to the twitter feed. Supporting SD and Lake Superior would force me to parse the first site, and break the algorithms I plan on implementing later. Unfortunately when it came down to priorities, I have selected to abandon non tweeted events for now.

Great job with your video player though, I enjoyed watching the videos.

Our pleasure! BTW, how are you going to differentiate which team scored which place with minibot...is there a data source for that somewhere without watching each match and hoping the camera catches all the action?

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by JB987

Our pleasure! BTW, how are you going to differentiate which team scored which place with minibot...is there a data source for that somewhere without watching each match and hoping the camera catches all the action?

no but by going through by each team's Average Minibot Score
I can calculate the % of their contribution similar to how i do the total contribution
So the minibot will still be an estimate, but after 10 matches it should be fairly reasonable.

[The Lucas]

Originally Posted by lineskier

r1c/(r1c + r2c + r3c) = r1%c to match n
r1%c * redScore = r1mc (red1's match contribution)

So do you add all those match contributions up and average it again to get your final number? If so, have you thought about another iteration to possibly get better numbers?

Interesting, there are always room for more metrics, particularly if you isolate mini bots and penalties. Also it would be interesting if you totaled up contributions across all regionals. I am not sure OPR would be to solve a sparse matrix like that well.

Just ideas, cool algorithm.