Top 25 ETCs after Week 3

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by speedbuggy76

Can you provide the algorithm to calculate it for a given team at a given regional? I realize that it would be too difficult to do for everyone at Peachtree since the data isn't on Twitter, but we'd love to calculate it for ourselves to see where we stand.

Thanks!

Well to get your ETC you have to go through almost every team...

but in case your feeling ambitious:

As each match gets added to a DB, add the alliance points to a running sum for each team.

Team's total average = teams total / num matches

Then once all the matches have been added
loop back through all the matches again, but this time
calculate your portion of the contribution:

so say for red1:

red alliances average = ( red 1's avg + red2's avg + red 3s avg ) / 3
red 1's contribution = redScore * (red 1's avg / red alliances avg)

then add up all of your contributions and divide by the number of matches.

note I am working on a script to get the matches from the first site for events not tweeted...
however for those events you will only see etc
erc and emc can only be calculated with the twitter feed.

[mwtidd]

Top ETCs using teams latest events:

[wynniethepooh]

wow didnt expect to see us all the way up to 7th. that feels pretty good

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by wynniethepooh

wow didnt expect to see us all the way up to 7th. that feels pretty good

just for the record, where these are estimates I would place you as a top 10 team... not necessarily #7 as there is only +-1 ETC point separates teams 4-10

If anything its more of an achievement because you are grouped with some truly amazing teams.


Tier 1: top 3
Tier 2: top 10
Tier 3: top 25

[speedbuggy76]

Alright, I've spent some time trying to re-create your calculations using the data from Peachtree. However, I keep getting a different number for our team (2415) than you do.

Some sample data:
In match 5, blue alliance scored 39 points and was composed of 2415, 1683, and 3694
2415's average alliance score: 77.1
1683's average alliance score: 26.2
3694's average alliance score: 7.1

The average score of the teams on the alliance = (77.1+26.2+7.1)/3 = 36.8

2415's contribution = 39*77.1/36.8 = 81.7

Is this correct? I ran this calculation for all of our matches and found us to have an average contribution of 119.2. This disagrees with your value of 38. Any idea what I'm doing wrong/differently?

Also, how did you break up the Peachtree data for our robot into ERC and EMC? I'm just using the data set on the FIRST website which only contains total alliance scores.

Thanks for putting all this together and answering questions! You have my interest piqued.

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by speedbuggy76

Alright, I've spent some time trying to re-create your calculations using the data from Peachtree. However, I keep getting a different number for our team (2415) than you do.

Some sample data:
In match 5, blue alliance scored 39 points and was composed of 2415, 1683, and 3694
2415's average alliance score: 77.1
1683's average alliance score: 26.2
3694's average alliance score: 7.1

The average score of the teams on the alliance = (77.1+26.2+7.1)/3 = 36.8

2415's contribution = 39*77.1/36.8 = 81.7

Is this correct? I ran this calculation for all of our matches and found us to have an average contribution of 119.2. This disagrees with your value of 38. Any idea what I'm doing wrong/differently?

Also, how did you break up the Peachtree data for our robot into ERC and EMC? I'm just using the data set on the FIRST website which only contains total alliance scores.

Thanks for putting all this together and answering questions! You have my interest piqued.

Sorry, that's my mistake in the representation of the algorithm. You should use the total score for your alliance not the average...

so
(77.1+26.2+7.1)

instead of
(77.1+26.2+7.1)/3

*trying to run through it off the top of my head doesn't always work out

I have also thought about generating highs and lows, by removing a teams highest and lowest matches, to give an ETC window rather than a set value.

every match is tweeted to the FRCFMS twitter feed and it contains one extra piece of information the red and blue bonus, which is the points put up in the race. by knowing this I can use the same algorithm i use for etc, but use it on the bonus score and then the alliance score - the bonus score (robot score)

[techvikesmom]

Just a note: Team 2054 has been renamed "TECHVIKES", not big blue crew. This is the second year under this name.

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by techvikesmom

Just a note: Team 2054 has been renamed "TECHVIKES", not big blue crew. This is the second year under this name.

thanks! your name's been changed in my database... a lot of the names are a bit dated. at least we got one fixed .

[KrazyCarl92]

So where do the cheesy poofs or high rollers factor into all of this?

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by KrazyCarl92

So where do the cheesy poofs or high rollers factor into all of this?

see my new signature My system work off the twitter feed, if your regional is 1 of the 4 that didn't post, I don't have numbers for you. I will try to support untweeted regionals but I won't be able to supply ERCs and EMCs

[Dave Scheck]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't get it. You have us with an EMC of 15. We put our minibot up in first place in 15 of our 16 matches, and got second in the 16th to boost our RPs. Our real minibot contribution based on that data is 29.3751 ( (30 * 15 + 20) / 16). I realize that you're just making an estimate, but when the data is so far from the actual value I don't see how it can be useful.

[Paul Copioli]

Originally Posted by Dave Scheck

Maybe it's just me, but I don't get it. You have us with an EMC of 15. We put our minibot up in first place in 15 of our 16 matches, and got second in the 16th to boost our RPs. Our real minibot contribution based on that data is 29.3751 ( (30 * 15 + 20) / 16). I realize that you're just making an estimate, but when the data is so far from the actual value I don't see how it can be useful.

I have the exact same questions. We have similar results from Detroit for our minibot.

[Jim Zondag]

Originally Posted by Dave Scheck

Maybe it's just me, but I don't get it.

Me either, and I'm not convinced yet that I need any new acronyms or methods. Everyone keeps obsessing about who is the best, but this is irrelevant until Einstien. At a real tournament, you don't really need a spreadsheet to tell you who is the best. This is obvious; my mom can tell you who is the best with no data at all. A thousand varied analytical methods will be able to give you the top 8 teams in order.
You do, however, need good data and methods to tell you who is 16th-24th. This is where the real value add of competitve analysis is: not for the first pick, but for the second.

[techvikesmom]

thanks for the update!!!!

[The Lucas]

Originally Posted by speedbuggy76

the Peachtree data for our robot into ERC and EMC? I'm just using the data set on the FIRST website which only contains total alliance scores.

The Twitter feed includes Bonus (minibot) and Penalty points for each alliance, the FIRST site does not. FRC-Spy also uses the Twitter feed to get this info.

Mike could you do an OPR calculation on the Minibot data for comparison since you already have the bonus data from the twitter feed. I imagine it will skew toward the extremes, and work a little better at identifying the best minibot.